Monday, April 23, 2007

A.L. FAAB Review 4/23/07

Matt Kata $7
An odd bid, to say the least, for a guy who is behind Ian Kinsler on the depth chart at 2B and buried in the OF behind a cast of thousands. Yeah, he's got 2 HR so far, but I don't think he's going to supplant Wilkerson, Cruz or Sosa anytime soon. I'm not saying Kata isn't worth owning in an A.L. only format, just not at more than a $1 bid.

Josh Towers $5
People get sucked into Josh Towers every year, and I was foolish to think that this year would be any different. He's even owned in 7% of CBS Sportsline leagues and starting in 2% of those leagues. However, you shouldn't own him. Despite the low ERA, he's got the usually poor WHIP and BA against. To top it all off, he's facing the Yankees in New York this week. The only thing Towers has going for him is that he'll be on a shorter leash after last year's dismal performance, but that still isn't enough of a reason to buy him at $1, let alone at $5.

Brian Bruney $2. Other bid $1.
This is a nice pick-up. Even if you don't love Bruney and think he's a walk machine, you still have to think that given a) Joe Torre's fickle nature when it comes to relief pitchers and b) Joe Torre's imploding bullpen that Bruney will move closer to the top of the heap behind Rivera. No, that doesn't mean that Bruney's a legitimate closer-in-waiting; Torre will ride Rivera even if Mo blew 15 saves in a row. But it does mean that Bruney will be in line for more wins and the odd save if Mo can't go. As far as Bruney's skills, it's all about the walks. He's only given up three free passes in 10 1/3 IP this year; if he can keep the rate that low, he could be a pretty damn filthy set up guy for the Yanks.

Pablo Ozuna $2
Sometimes, bids don't make sense out of context. Ozuna was bought by the guy who lost Scott Podsednik to the DL, so I can see why he went the extra $1 to make sure he got Ozuna. He hasn't played much yet, but Ozzie likes him and Ozuna's versatile, so Pablo will probably get more AB/G than he has to date. Don't expect the .328 BA Ozuna posted last year, but he's got a little speed and could steal 10 bases if spotted correctly.

Chris Gomez $1
Only in A.L. only 4x4 does Chris Gomez even whiff someone's roster. He put up nice numbers last year in a very limited number of AB, but doesn't hit for power and doesn't run. You generally can't count on average from these limited sample guys.

Brendan Harris $1
This is a savvy move by one of the league's savviest owners. Harris has started six of the last seven games for the Devil Rays, and Joe Maddon loves to tinker with that line-up. Ben Zobrist has mostly been the vicitm of Harris's hot start, and I think Harris will keep playing as long as he's swinging that hot bat. Don't get too excited; Harris isn't one of those ex-uberprospects who is suddenly going to hit 30 HR, but he is a solid option to hit 10-12 HR with a decent BA if Zobrist does wind up getting demoted to AAA. And that could happen.

Mike Myers $1
I'm always surprised when people pick up lefty specialists (or LOOGIES, as John Sickels loves to call them) in Roto, even in 4x4. However, the great ones can definitely earn their keep, as long as they aren't left in to wither and die against righties. Curiously, Myers was lights out last year against righties (631 OPS) and rather pedestrian against lefties (740 OPS). I don't know if this is due to the small sample size or marks some sort of change in Myers. The more important numbers to me are the AB. Torre let Myers face righthanders 49 times last year. That's not good if you want your LOOGY to sneakily earn $10 as your 9th picher.

Andy Sisco $1
He's buried too far back in the White Sox bullpen to ever see a save, but I love Sicso's stuff. He seems to be back on track after a bad year in KC last year. He's being used as a specialist by Ozzie, which I think is a mistake but, more importantly, hurts Andy's value in the short term.

In addition to FAAB, my A.L. also uses a waiver system. Every team can make one claim of a player waived the week before, and the preference goes from last place to first. This week, the following players were claimed.

Kameron Loe. Claimed by 9th place, 6th place and 1st place teams.
He was drafted at $1, then jettisoned (by Toz) once he was moved to the rotation. 5 1/3 great innings against a weak A's lineup later, three teams were interested enough to take a stab on Loe. He's an enigmatic pitcher. The high groundball rate helps him in Texas, but the weak K/IP doesn't help him anywhere. He's probably going to have one of those long careers where he earns anywhere from $10 to ($10) any given year, with a fluke $20+ season in his late 20s that makes people overbid for years. Tee hee, maybe I should do a Sickels-like "Community Projection".

Anyway, my two cents is that Loe is better suited for the bullpen...his stuff isn't strong enough to fool a line-up more than once on any given night. But he's better than Jamey Wright, so maybe he'll stick.

Joel Pineiro. Claimed by last place and 6th place teams.
Pineiro went for $2 (also to Toz) as the injury alternate to his $12 Jon Papelbon. With Hideki Okajima seemingly claiming the #2 spot in the bullpen, Pineiro's value is quite limited. He's another one of these guys who has oodles of potential who will probably never realize it.

As a final note, I'm not doing write-ups on guys like Adam Lind, who was activated this week but was on someone's farm roster or Bartolo Colon, injured but now activated. I can do that if the peanut gallery likes.

I'm also not writing about players cut loose. I can do that as well, if my 20-30 daily readers think that's a worthwhile feature as well.

1 comment:

Toz said...

Harris is a very nice pickup. Unfortunately, there were more than a few people asleep at the wheel. Had I not made a trade to fill my SS dead spot, I would have bid $3 on him.

Zobrist has been very bad with the bat so far this year. The only long term problem with Harris is where he will play. Brignac is destined for that spot, and second base is taken as well.

Someday, the Rays will figure out how to mesh their stud young talent with free agent pickups and have a real contender. Until then, congratulations (early) on another 90 loss season.