Friday, January 26, 2007

CBS Sportsline Expert League Draft - Wrap up Part 2

Yesterday, I went through a brief summary of the first 10 rounds of the CBS Sportsline Expert N.L. Draft.

So far, I've got: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Lee, Billy Wagner, Chipper Jones, Tom Gordon, Mike Cameron, Jim Edmonds, Chuck James, Marcus Giles and Dave Roberts.

At this point I felt pretty good about the team though, as I pointed out yesterday, the first 10 rounds generally don't have a lot of variability. It's typically the middle rounds were teams are generally made or broken.

So, moving on:

Round 11
121 Baseball Prospectus Noah Lowry (P SF)
122 David Ross (C CIN)
123 Luke Scott (OF HOU)
124 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Khalil Greene (SS SD)
125 Clay Hensley (P SD)
126 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Randy Winn (OF SF)
127 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Roger Clemens (P HOU)
128 Baseball Info Solutions Greg Maddux (P SD)
129 Nick Johnson (1B WAS)
130 Roto Times Anthony Reyes (P STL)
131 Patton & Co. Omar Vizquel (SS SF)
132 Elias Sports Bureau Paul Lo Duca (C NYM)

And this is definitely where you can begin to see the variability in team strategies. Roger Clemens in Round 11 is either an awesome pick or a total waste of space; the rule is we can draft major league free agents, but lose them if they sign in the A.L. Clemens might go back to the 'Stros, but I suspect Boston or New York or more likely destinations.

Nick Johnson looks like a risk here, but I was thinking about him at this point as well. Yes, 1B is that weak in the N.L. now.

The Vizquel pick was a definite positional move. With Greene going, I didn't like the shortstops who were left. And if he runs again, Patton & Co. is going to kick ass in steals.

Round 12
133 Elias Sports Bureau Taylor Tankersley (P FLA)
134 Patton & Co. Bengie Molina (C SF)
135 Roto Times Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B SD)
136 Zach Duke (P PIT)
137 Baseball Info Solutions David Eckstein (SS STL)
138 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Andre Ethier (OF LA)
139 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Chris Duffy (OF PIT)
140 Tom Glavine (P NYM)
141 CBS SportsLine (Mack) John Patterson (P WAS)
142 Salomon Torres (P PIT)
143 Ryan Dempster (P CHC)
144 Baseball Prospectus Cliff Floyd (OF CHC)

Another positional pick for Patton & Company. We didn't have a catcher yet, and I didn't want to get stuck with the junk at the bottom of the pool again this year. Molina is an ugly player in real life, but I don't care in Roto.

Kouzmanoff probably elicited the most groans here...half the room thinking he's going to be great, while the other half gave the thumbs down this early. I like him; Rotoman's projection doesn't.

Round 13
145 Baseball Prospectus Wilson Betemit (3B LA)
146 Wes Helms (3B PHI)
147 Ronny Paulino (C PIT)
148 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Armando Benitez (P SF)
149 David Weathers (P CIN)
150 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Chad Billingsley (P LA)
151 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Chris Snyder (C ARI)
152 Baseball Info Solutions Luis E. Gonzalez (OF LA)
153 Chris Iannetta (C COL)
154 Roto Times Jonathan Broxton (P LA)
155 Patton & Co. Jon Lieber (P PHI)
156 Elias Sports Bureau Rich Aurilia (3B SF)

As I mentioned before, this was the first year that Toz was not able to do this draft with me. In a lot of ways, Toz and I are bad people to be partners...both of us want to be calling the shots, and both of us have our prejudices that clash. I tend to be a very systematic drafter, while Toz goes more off the cuff.

Talking to him last night after I was done, he told me that he thought Jon Lieber was my weakest pick of the day. He's probably right, although looking at most of the pitchers who went after Lieber, I can't say that there was anything definitively better out there. If I made one mistake, it was not so much drafting Lieber but not drafting another pitcher earlier.

I thought it was a little early for Wes Helms. And the temperature of this room in late January gives two interesting readings: 1) Chris Iannetta is the starter for the Rox at catcher, not Lopez. 2) Chris Snyder is more valued than Miguel Montero in Arizona.

Round 14
157 Elias Sports Bureau Miguel Olivo (C FLA)
158 Patton & Co. Doug Davis (P ARI)
159 Roto Times Kerry Wood (P CHC)
160 Mike Gonzalez (P ATL)
161 Baseball Info Solutions Dan Wheeler (P HOU)
162 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Scott Linebrink (P SD)
163 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Shane Victorino (OF PHI)
164 Juan Encarnacion (OF STL)
165 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Pedro Feliz (3B SF)
166 Xavier Nady (OF PIT)
167 Alfredo Amezaga (OF FLA)
168 Baseball Prospectus Matt Kemp (OF LA)

I figured I'd be double dipping on pitching in Rounds 13/14 and I was happy to get a plugger like Doug Davis in this slot.

An interesting run on middle relievers here from 160-162. Gonzalez and Wheeler are closer hedges, but Linebrink is purely for the qualitatives and the whiffs.

Matt Kemp was highly regarded by the peanut gallery, but my favorite pick in this round is Shane Victorino. You'll be elated if you get him in your auction for under $10.

Round 15
169 Baseball Prospectus Chris Snelling (OF WAS)
170 Ted Lilly (P CHC)
171 John Maine (P NYM)
172 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Rod Barajas (C PHI)
173 Shawn Green (OF NYM)
174 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Matt Morris (P SF)
175 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Corey Koskie (3B MIL)
176 Baseball Info Solutions Jason Jennings (P HOU)
177 Jose A. Bautista (OF PIT)
178 Roto Times Scott Thorman (1B ATL)
179 Patton & Co. Craig Wilson (1B ATL)
180 Elias Sports Bureau Matt Murton (OF CHC)

Unless I wanted one of the Reds 1B, Craig Wilson was the last decent 1B on the board. I'm not as high as the statheads are on Wilson, but I've always liked him. What I like most is that he could get only 350-400 AB and still pop 20 HR.

Eric Mack asked me, as a Philly guy, if I liked Barajas. I do. This is also around the time I noticed that Eric was drafting an incredibly powerful squad. If Helton bounces back, Eric could top 300 HR.

Round 16
181 Elias Sports Bureau Rafael Soriano (P ATL)
182 Patton & Co. Adam Kennedy (2B STL)
183 Roto Times Kaz Matsui (2B COL)
184 Ricky Nolasco (P FLA)
185 Baseball Info Solutions Ryan Church (OF WAS)
186 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) J.J. Hardy (SS MIL)
187 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Geoff Jenkins (OF MIL)
188 Kelly Johnson (OF ATL)
189 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Mike Pelfrey (P NYM)
190 Woody Williams (P HOU)
191 Randy Wolf (P LA)
192 Baseball Prospectus Tom S. Gorzelanny (P PIT)

One of my goals in 5x5 is to try and draft 14 regulars. Obviously, I don't want Brad Ausmus or Cristian Guzman. But if I can draft a full team of guys who will play everyday, I will accumulate stats. Adam Kennedy was a grab purely in this vein: 5 HR, 50 RBI, 60 R, 15 SB and an OK batting average. It doesn't sound exciting, and I know some people don't like this tactic, but I'd rather take the middle infield regular than the flashy prospect who has a 50/50 chance of playing.

Still, I might have been better off with Church. And dammnit if Toz hasn't sold me on Randy Wolf...I suddenly have a little drafters remorse.

Round 17
193 Baseball Prospectus Oliver Perez (P NYM)
194 Kip Wells (P STL)
195 Jack Wilson (SS PIT)
196 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Yadier Molina (C STL)
197 Jeff Suppan (P MIL)
198 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Mark Mulder (P STL)
199 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Lastings Milledge (OF NYM)
200 Baseball Info Solutions Scott Hatteberg (1B CIN)
201 Kevin Mench (OF MIL)
202 Roto Times Javy Lopez (C COL)
203 Patton & Co. Bob Howry (P CHC)
204 Elias Sports Bureau Aaron Heilman (P NYM)

A lot of wishcasting at this point. The room oohed and aahed over Oliver Perez and Kip Wells, but I'd rather have Suppan. I took Howry simply to undo a little of the damage to my ERA/WHIP that I'm sure some of my starters might cause later.

Javy Lopez is an awesome pick here if he wins and keeps the job.

Round 18

205 Elias Sports Bureau Scott Spiezio (3B STL)
206 Patton & Co. Livan Hernandez (P ARI)
207 Roto Times Claudio Vargas (P MIL)
208 Ryan Theriot (2B CHC)
209 Baseball Info Solutions Jose Castillo (2B PIT)
210 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Ryan Madson (P PHI)
211 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Jose Valentin (2B NYM)
212 Aaron Cook (P COL)
213 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Homer Bailey (P CIN)
214 Orlando Hernandez (P NYM)
215 Craig Biggio (2B HOU)
216 Baseball Prospectus Anibal Sanchez (P FLA)

My worst pick, judging by the temperatue of the room. No one likes Livan Hernandez. And I might have been better off with Orlando.

But that's the nice thing about a league with a perpetual reserve list. I can keep Hernandez down all year, or I can bring him up for favorable matchups. He might also have a great year like he did the last time I drafted him, in LABR in 2003.

The room liked Valentin in the 18th round. So do I. Given all the speed I wound off, he might have been a better play than Kennedy.

It's too early for Homer Bailey.

Round 19
217 Baseball Prospectus Brian Wilson (P SF)
218 Russell Branyan (OF SD)
219 Paul Maholm (P PIT)
220 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Jeff Baker (3B COL)
221 Jeff Weaver (P STL)
222 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Cla C. Meredith (P SD)
223 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Jason Hirsh (P COL)
224 Baseball Info Solutions Preston Wilson (OF STL)
225 Dana Eveland (P ARI)
226 Roto Times Kory Casto (3B WAS)
227 Patton & Co. Terrmel Sledge (OF SD)
228 Elias Sports Bureau Matt D. Capps (P PIT)

Patton & Company finally have a pick the room likes. Personally, I think he's a washed up OF who shouldn't be in any major league team's starting line-up. But he's currently going to play for SD.

Brian Wilson is a big-time tout favorite, with some thinking he'll be closing games by year's end. That was the skinny on David Aardsma not that long ago.

The room likes Kory Casto.

Round 20
229 Elias Sports Bureau Ryan Langerhans (OF ATL)
230 Patton & Co. Gabe Gross (OF MIL)
231 Roto Times Alex Gonzalez (SS CIN)
232 Jon Rauch (P WAS)
233 Baseball Info Solutions Duaner Sanchez (P NYM)
234 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Jonathan O. Sanchez (P SF)
235 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Todd Coffey (P CIN)
236 Jamey Carroll (2B COL)
237 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Bill Bray (P CIN)
238 Nook Logan (OF WAS)
239 Mike Stanton (P CIN)
240 Baseball Prospectus James Loney (1B LA)

Gross is only a good pick if Billy Hall can't handle centerfield. Otherwise, my utility slot doesn't look so hot. I do like Gross' 858 OPS last year in 208 AB. He's a wild card.

Logan is a great pick here if he can hold the job.

Tomorrow, I'll wrap up, though I can't promise I'm going to write another 10 round blow by blow about the scrubbenies in the end game.

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