Thursday, January 25, 2007

CBS Sportsline Expert League Draft - Wrap up Part 1

So now that the dust has settled, how did I do?

I posted my results over at Alex, but it's often more useful to look at things on a Round by Round basis.

As a reminder, this was a draft (not auction) format. 12 teams, N.L. only, 5x5 auction. 23 man active roster and 7 man reserve list. It was a snake draft, so the team with the 1st pick in the 1st round had the 24th pick in the second round. This had been an online draft in previous years, but was done by phone this year.

The picks were supplied

Eric Mack, the Commissioner of the CBS Sportsline league, drew names from a hat, and Patton & Company had the 11th pick in the 1st round and 14th in the second.

Round 1
1 Baseball Prospectus Albert Pujols (1B STL)
2 Alfonso Soriano (OF CHC)
3 Chase Utley (2B PHI)
4 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Ryan Howard (1B PHI)
5 David Wright (3B NYM)
6 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Miguel M. Cabrera (3B FLA)
7 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Jose B. Reyes (SS NYM)
8 Baseball Info Solutions Carlos Beltran (OF NYM)
9 Jason Bay (OF PIT)
10 Roto Times Hanley Ramirez (SS FLA)
11 Patton & Co. Chris Carpenter (P STL)
12 Elias Sports Bureau Lance Berkman (1B HOU)

I was hoping to get a hitter, but the Top 10 hitters pretty much went the way I thought they would, even if they didn't quite go in the order I thought they would. N.L. pitching is a lot thinner this year than in years past, and one of my goals was to get an ace.

Round 2
13 Elias Sports Bureau Garrett Atkins (3B COL)
14 Patton & Co. Carlos N. Lee (OF HOU)
15 Roto Times Derrek Lee (1B CHC)
16 Jimmy Rollins (SS PHI)
17 Baseball Info Solutions Jake Peavy (P SD)
18 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Matt Holliday (OF COL)
19 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Roy Oswalt (P HOU)
20 Juan Pierre (OF LA)
21 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Andruw Jones (OF ATL)
22 Aramis Ramirez (3B CHC)
23 Rafael Furcal (SS LA)
24 Baseball Prospectus Brian McCann (C ATL)

Weapon1 commented over at Alex's site that he didn't like my Carlos Lee pick. The thinking is that he's going to play "fat and happy" and not live up to his contract. It's a possibility, but I wanted the power hitter, and think that Lee's going to slip later in the contract, not now.

There are minor surprises here, but nothing crazy. I might have taken Oswalt ove rPeavy, or McCann a little later, but nothing screams out great pick or rip off. That's one of the things about a draft - the differences early are often a matter of opinion.

Round 3
25 Baseball Prospectus Carlos Zambrano (P CHC)
26 Ryan Zimmerman (3B WAS)
27 Brandon Webb (P ARI)
28 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Adam Dunn (OF CIN)
29 Prince Fielder (1B MIL)
30 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Carlos Delgado (1B NYM)
31 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Dan Uggla (2B FLA)
32 Baseball Info Solutions Rickie Weeks (2B MIL)
33 Ben Sheets (P MIL)
34 Roto Times Jeff Francoeur (OF ATL)
35 Patton & Co. Billy Wagner (P NYM)
36 Elias Sports Bureau Jason Schmidt (P LA)

It's possible I dipped into the closer pool a little early, but another thing I identified in my preparations was that closers in the N.L. are much weaker than in the A.L. this year. You've got about 6-7 jobs with weak closers or situations that could become unsettled quickly.

This is where a lot of teams grab the ace. Since I already had, I didn't worry about that.

Round 4
37 Elias Sports Bureau John Smoltz (P ATL)
38 Patton & Co. Chipper Jones (3B ATL)
39 Roto Times Trevor Hoffman (P SD)
40 Brett Myers (P PHI)
41 Baseball Info Solutions Barry Zito (P SF)
42 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Dontrelle Willis (P FLA)
43 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Bill Hall (SS MIL)
44 Scott Rolen (3B STL)
45 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Felipe Lopez (SS WAS)
46 Adam A. LaRoche (1B PIT)
47 Francisco Cordero (P MIL)
48 Baseball Prospectus Chad Cordero (P WAS)

Chipper was not an attempt to break up a pitching run, but simply my attempt to get the best player on the board. My feeling in drafts is to go for the best player early and don't start looking at position scarcity until you're in the 10th or 11th round.

LaRoche seemed a little early for me, but 1B is weak this year in both leagues.

Round 5
49 Baseball Prospectus Matt Cain (P SF)
50 Cole Hamels (P PHI)
51 Edgar Renteria (SS ATL)
52 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Stephen O. Drew (SS ARI)
53 Adrian Gonzalez (1B SD)
54 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Jeff Kent (2B LA)
55 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Todd Helton (1B COL)
56 Baseball Info Solutions Aaron Harang (P CIN)
57 Carlos Quentin (OF ARI)
58 Roto Times Dave Bush (P MIL)
59 Patton & Co. Tom Gordon (P PHI)
60 Elias Sports Bureau Chris R. Young (P SD)

After last year's Armando Benitez debacle, I guess I had saves on the brain. Conventional wisdom says not to pick a closer too early, let alone two. However, Gordon/Wagner will provide a good number of whiffs as well.

One thing I like about drafts is that they do give you a good idea of opinions on players that you can take to an auction as well. The fact that Prince Fielder went 29th this year tells me that he won't be cheap.

Round 6
61 Elias Sports Bureau Brad Hawpe (OF COL)
62 Patton & Co. Mike Cameron (OF SD)
63 Roto Times Randy Johnson (P ARI)
64 Freddy An. Garcia (P PHI)
65 Baseball Info Solutions Nomar Garciaparra (1B LA)
66 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Ryan P. Freel (OF CIN)
67 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Chad Tracy (3B ARI)
68 Josh Johnson (P FLA)
69 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Bronson Arroyo (P CIN)
70 Willy Taveras (OF COL)
71 Chris B. Young (OF ARI)
72 Baseball Prospectus Chris Capuano (P MIL)

Again, went for the best player on the board here, in my opinion. You can really see that most people are grabbing pitching, identifying correctly that arms are going to be in short supply. If I made a mistake in this auction, that was it.

Round 7
73 Baseball Prospectus Brandon Phillips (2B CIN)
74 Ian Snell (P PIT)
75 Takashi Saito (P LA)
76 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Brad Lidge (P HOU)
77 Brian Fuentes (P COL)
78 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Derek Lowe (P LA)
79 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Jason Isringhausen (P STL)
80 Baseball Info Solutions Morgan Ensberg (3B HOU)
81 Edwin Encarnacion (3B CIN)
82 Roto Times Michael Barrett (C CHC)
83 Patton & Co. Jim Edmonds (OF STL)
84 Elias Sports Bureau Austin Kearns (OF WAS)

This was the first pick I made where I remember feeling like I had a choice. I was looking at Randy Winn, Edmonds and Dave Roberts. I wound up with Roberts in Round 10 and Winn slipped all the way to the 11th, so I made the right call here. However, Edmonds is similar to a lot of my team. He's old and an injury risk.

Snell is one of the first players I thought came up a little early. I also see the closer run here. One of the things I don't like about a draft is that I can't shoot out closers for bid after I've gotten Wagner/Gordon. I have to wait for the rest of the room.

Round 8
85 Elias Sports Bureau Eric Byrnes (OF ARI)
86 Patton & Co. Chuck H. James (P ATL)
87 Roto Times Corey C. Hart (OF MIL)
88 Mike Jacobs (1B FLA)
89 Baseball Info Solutions Russell Martin (C LA)
90 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Adam Wainwright (P STL)
91 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Brad Penny (P LA)
92 Jacque Jones (OF CHC)
93 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Pat Burrell (OF PHI)
94 Josh Willingham (OF FLA)
95 Conor Jackson (1B ARI)
96 Baseball Prospectus Barry Bonds (OF SF)

Probably my riskiest pick. But I like what James did in limited work last year, and I needed a starting pitcher badly. Looking at the rest of this round, I might have overshot a little.

Round 9
97 Baseball Prospectus Bob Wickman (P ATL)
98 Ray Durham (2B SF)
99 Freddy Sanchez (3B PIT)
100 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Mark Prior (P CHC)
101 Orlando Hudson (2B ARI)
102 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Ken Griffey (OF CIN)
103 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Aaron Rowand (OF PHI)
104 Baseball Info Solutions Brian Giles (OF SD)
105 Jeremy Hermida (OF FLA)
106 Roto Times Tim Hudson (P ATL)
107 Patton & Co. Marcus Giles (2B SD)
108 Elias Sports Bureau Scott Olsen (P FLA)

A positional pick. I think Giles will bounce back but, even if he doesn't, 5x5 makes me sweat it out a little less because of the runs.

Round 10
109 Elias Sports Bureau Mark DeRosa (OF CHC)
110 Patton & Co. Dave Roberts (OF SF)
111 Roto Times Moises Alou (OF NYM)
112 Chris Burke (2B HOU)
113 Baseball Info Solutions Jose Valverde (P ARI)
114 CBS SportsLine (Gonos) Jeff Francis (P COL)
115 CBS SportsLine (Tighe) Johnny Estrada (C MIL)
116 Pedro Martinez (P NYM)
117 CBS SportsLine (Mack) Chris Duncan (OF STL)
118 Rich Hill (P CHC)
119 Josh Bard (C SD)
120 Baseball Prospectus Troy Tulowitzki (SS COL)

I have Cameron already, but decided to go for a true speedster. I was a little remorseful about Duncan, hoping he'd slip to the next round.

The 10th round is where the second guessing begins in earnest. Bard and Tulowitzki seemed early to me.

That's the end of Part 1. More tomorrow.

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