Friday, May 07, 2010

N.L. Tout Wars: Trade #2

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo trades Manny Ramirez to Larry Schechter of Sandlot Shrink for Nyjer Morgan.

I like this trade a lot for Schechter. He's cruising in SB, and while he's also strong in all of the offensive categories, I know he's planning on trading a hitter for a starting pitcher (I know this because he's already contacted me about this).

Even if he doesn't flip Manny or another hitter, though, this is shrewd analysis of Larry's real strengths versus what he's done so far. While you can tip your cap for what Miguel Olivo, Kosuke Fukudome, and Jorge Cantu have done so far, it's more realistic to assume that they'll regress to the mean than to assume that all three will keep up the blistering paces they have established.

I like the trade less for Pianowski. I can see why he made the trade. He's dead last in SB, but there is a big clump of teams in front of him in the category. A six steal gain gives Pianowski another six points.

However, it's not like Morgan is an Ichiro Suzuki who is always going to generate a ton of runs and batting average. At best, Morgan is going to be a push on runs and batting average and it's going to be a 2-for-1 category trade. At worst, I can see Manny outpacing Morgan in every category but steals.

In terms of what each player is worth, the trade is fair. But if I were Pianowski, I probably would be considering tossing the SB category overboard at this point.

(In the interest of full disclosure, both Schechter and Pianowski are ahead of me in the standings as I write this.)

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