If you guessed back in March that these would be the American League and National League leaders in OPS and ERA on May 4, give yourself 1,000 points.
I'm generally not a proponent of reading too much into April. It's a month of games - and due to the higher number of off days, it's really less than a full month of games.
However, we get sucked in to April statistics every year. We have nothing else to look at for the current season except for April so as a result tend to put more weight on fast starts than we should.
This phenomenon is particularly bad after two weeks of the season. If a hitter went 5-for-50 in August, we wouldn't even notice unless he happened to be on our team. In April, though, everything gets magnified 10,000 times and we start to think that that hitter might be finished.
On the other hand, it isn't useful to entirely discount April. Rookies or second-year players can sometimes be finding a new level of performance - even if that level isn't quite as lofty as what they've done to start the year. Likewise, veterans might be slipping to a new level of performance though, again, maybe they won't be as bad as they were to start the year.
MLB ERA Leaders: May 1, 2009 (min 20 IP)
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | April ERA | Final ERA | '08 |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | $44 | $21 | +23 | 0.50 | 2.16 | $22 |
| 2 | Johan Santana | $21 | $34 | -13 | 1.10 | 3.13 | $34 |
| 3 | Dan Haren | $33 | $27 | +6 | 1.54 | 3.14 | $30 |
| 4 | Wandy Rodriguez | $25 | $9 | +16 | 1.69 | 3.02 | $15 |
| 5 | Ricky Romero | $11 | 1.71 | 4.30 | |||
| 6 | Jair Jurrjens | $26 | $11 | +15 | 1.72 | 2.60 | $16 |
| 7 | Armando Galarraga | -$0 | $6 | -6 | 1.85 | 5.64 | $18 |
| 8 | Tim Wakefield | $8 | $2 | +5 | 1.86 | 4.58 | $16 |
| 9 | Kyle Lohse | $4 | $4 | 0 | 1.97 | 4.74 | $17 |
| 10 | Matt Cain | $26 | $17 | +9 | 2.08 | 2.89 | $16 |
| Average | $20 | $15 | +6 | $2 |
There are a couple of fast starters who faded here, but for the most part this was a pretty steady group as 2009 played out. You knew Greinke wasn't going to put up a 0.50 ERA, but anyone who watched him in April could tell that he was for real. Owners who held on to Wandy Rodriguez and Jair Jurrjens were rewarded - and owners in leagues that can still "buy low" on these types of players were really rewarded.
There are some losers on this list, with most of the losers residing in the American League. With the exception of Lohse, the big ERA jumpers were all in the Junior Circuit. I'm not sure if there's something to that or not, but take note if you're in a mixed league.
MLB OPS Leaders: May 1, 2009 (min 75 PA)
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | April OPS | Final OPS | '08 |
| 1 | Kevin Youkilis | $25 | $29 | -4 | 1.203 | .961 | $32 |
| 2 | Manny Ramirez | $16 | $31 | -14 | 1.154 | .949 | $39 |
| 3 | Raul Ibanez | $25 | $21 | +4 | 1.151 | .899 | $27 |
| 4 | Nick Swisher | $15 | $9 | +6 | 1.144 | .869 | $11 |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | $26 | $30 | -4 | 1.141 | .958 | $28 |
| 6 | Evan Longoria | $26 | $33 | -7 | 1.134 | .889 | $24 |
| 7 | Albert Pujols | $45 | $42 | +3 | 1.132 | 1.101 | $43 |
| 8 | Jason Bay | $26 | $29 | -2 | 1.123 | .921 | $29 |
| 9 | Brandon Inge | $12 | $8 | +4 | 1.114 | .720 | $5 |
| 10 | Chase Utley | $33 | $35 | -3 | 1.105 | .905 | $33 |
| Average | $25 | $27 | -2 | $27 |
With the exceptions of Brandon Inge (who slipped badly) and Albert Pujols (who maintained), this is a fairly predictable group in the sense that they can't keep it up. Their final results are really, really good, but unless you're Pujols, you're not going to maintain this level of production.
So be aware, Robinson Cano and Konerko owners. Your guys had a great month, but chances are excellent that some regression to the mean is coming. This doesn't mean that you should simply toss Cano or Konerko away, but it does mean that you shouldn't anticipate an OPS north of 1100.
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