Showing posts sorted by date for query werner. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query werner. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Monday, September 10, 2012

N.L. FAAB Log: September 10, 2012


Adam Eaton $11. Other bids: $10, $6, $1, $1.
You can read my innermost thoughts and feelings about Eaton here. He is swinging a hot bat right now and could get some playing time even if/when Chris Young does return.

Werner was profiled here. The magic continued yesterday, as Werner picked up a win in a solid outing against Arizona. He gets the Rockies at home next week, another good match-up. Be aware that it appears that the Padres are employing a six-man rotation.

Rolen is currently day-to-day for what feels like the 3,429th time this season. Rolen picked it up after a horrid start to the 2012 campaign, but he doesn't offer enough to make up for all of the time he misses due to one nagging injury after another. Rolen is a free agent after this season, and at Age 38 might have a hard time latching on as a starter with another organization.

I'm no Descalso fan, but he has been a victim of terrible BABIP luck all season long. That doesn't help your batting average, but Descalso "should" be hitting .260-.270, not .228. He still looks overmatched offensively, but Mike Matheny doesn't trust Allen Craig's defense at second, so Descalso should get regular time down the stretch. He steals/hits home runs just enough to be a mild asset in N.L.-only even with the bad BA.

Jenrry Mejia $1. Other bid $0
Mejia will take Matt Harvey's place in the Mets rotation once Harvey is shut down, with a start tentatively slated for September 19 against the Phillies. Mejia still appears to be in recovery mode to me, and is a risky proposition for a contender. As a potential $10 freeze, Mejia is no sure thing either. He doesn't have a lot of post-surgery innings under his belt and could use another half season at Triple-A building up stamina and endurance.

Torres isn't that far removed from a strong (Roto) campaign in 2010 but has looked more like a fourth outfielder than a regular the last two seasons. The speed is nice, but there isn't much else attached to it. I have a hard time envisioning Torres with a Major League job to open 2013. Feel free to drop Torres unless you really need the steals.

Brothers has been terrific/dominant down the stretch for the Rockies, but unless there's a sea change this offseason, Rafael Betancourt should stay in town and start 2013 as the closer. Brothers' terrific K rate make him a must own in 5x5 right now but as a future play he's no sure thing...like every other closer-in-waiting that there ever was.



Saturday, September 01, 2012

Gearing Up: September 4-10


I'm going to devote two separate posts to the September call-ups next week: one for the American League and one for the National League. So no Jurickson Profar today, but he will be profiled next week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Got the Call
Casey Kelly ARI
Kelly is a viable add in N.L.-only and deeper mixed league formats; in standard mixed he is a stash/wait-and-see kind of guy. Kelly had a strong debut against the Braves at home; he baffled them for six innings with his fastball/curve combo. John Sickels offers a good assessment of Kelly here. Eno Saris at Fangraphs breaks down Kelly's start here. I agree with Sickels and think that Kelly is a mid-tier starter long term. Keep in mind that some are much higher on Kelly and see him as a #2 or even a sub-ace type, so if you're playing for this year you'll have to bid fairly aggressively.

Rising Up
Ricky Nolasco (40% owned last week; 44% owned this week) MIL, @WAS
I haven't written about Nolasco once this year. Come to think of it, I don't even think I've been asked about Nolasco in this space or on Twitter. For the last few years, Nolasco was the darling of the xFIP/SIERA/"he's going to get much better any second!" crowd, but Nolasco has now thrown over 1,000 Major League innings and it's starting to become painfully apparent that what you see is what you get. Nolasco's peripherals have slipped even further this year, and he's practically not worthy of owning even in N.L.-only.... yet is owned in 44% of CBS leagues. Hats off for a terrific start in a tough match-up against the Nationals last time out, but I wouldn't touch him.

Brandon League (19%/23%)
League was traded over from the Mariners at the deadline to set-up Kenley Jansen so owners started slowly but surely dropping him in mixed formats and even in a handful of only leagues. Now Jansen is out indefinitely due to a heart condition, so League has a shot at some saves. Ronald Belisario might get the first crack at closing, but League is a good spec pick-up in deeper mixed or any format where you can reserve active Major Leaguers. I suspect League gets 2-3 saves before the year is out even if Belisario does hang on to the job.

Tyler Cloyd (0%/2%) @CIN, COL
Considered a sleeper prospect by some heading into 2012, Cloyd delivered on this promise, posting a terrific ERA at both Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to replace Cole Hamels in a spot start on Sunday. Vance Worley is out for the year after elbow surgery, so the Phillies might leave Cloyd in the rotation to give him a look. Cloyd's fastball is underwhelming, but he changes speeds, throws strikes, and keeps hitters off balance. He might have some success the first time through the league, and even though the Reds match-up is tough, I'm not averse to making the two-start recommendation this week.

Andrew Werner (0%/2%) @LAD, ARI
Werner is a lovely success story. A high school star that nevertheless went undrafted - both after high school and after college - Werner caught the Padres eye and they signed him out of an independent league in 2011. Some have described his stuff as unimpressive, but all Werner has done as a professional is rack up some pretty solid numbers - with the exception of four starts in the Pacific Coast League, where almost no pitcher racks up good numbers. It's hard to recommend a pitcher with such a lack of pedigree, but Werner - wait for it - pitches for the Padres, so you have to at least consider him for match ups at home. I still don't like him.

In the Minors
Colin McHugh @STL, ATL
This is kind of a cheat, as the Mets have announced that McHugh will be called up to start against the Cardinals next week. McHugh has average stuff, but works the zone well, throws three or four pitches for strikes (depending on how you classify his fastball) and keeps the ball down in the zone. He is already 25 years old, but has progressed enough in the last two years that he's definitely still a prospect. McHugh isn't a bad play down the stretch if you need to gamble.

Darin Ruf
At 26, Ruf is old for Double-A. But old or no, the guy has to be given his due for an incredible season. Thirty-eight home runs and a 321/413/632 slash line is awesome...and the Eastern League is a pitchers' league where home runs aren't easy to come by. Ruf isn't on the 40-man, but Charlie Manuel says that the Phillies might call Ruf up anyway to give him a look this month. Ruf's problem is that he's blocked by Ryan Howard at first base and his range doesn't play the outfield, not even in left (I leave it to you, dear readers, to make the cruel Raul Ibanez jokes). The other problem is that Ruf isn't realistically a 35-40 HR hitter in the Majors. Think 20-25 HR with a .250 average and that's probably a more realistic expectation. Is that Major League caliber? Certainly, but if Ruf is limited to first base then he's not an obvious starter but instead a guy who may or may not get an opportunity. I'd add him as a potential keeper in N.L.-only if he does get the call, but despite the gaudy numbers, Ruf is far from a sure thing.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Rising Up
Mauro Gomez (0% owned last week; 5% owned this week)
The acquisition of James Loney combined with the activation off of the DL of David Ortiz made Gomez look expendable, but the reemergence of Ortiz's issues probably give Gomez a chance the rest of the way the show if he has enough in the tank to provide value to a Major League team. He has profiled more as minor league journeyman in the past than as a potential Major League starter, but Gomez is stinging the ball in a small sample size for the Red Sox and could stick in 2013 and beyond if he shows a little something in September. He's a must pick-up if you're competing (he's an obvious play if you lost Papi to the DL) and are only concerned about the here and now.

In the Minors
Dylan Bundy
There was some chatter about Bundy getting called up to the bigs on August 31 so he could be eligible for the postseason if the Orioles made it, but now it sounds like he won't see the Majors in 2012. If you were saving some FAAB for Bundy in leagues that don't allow you to pick up minor leaguers, then adjust your expectations accordingly.