In fantasy terms, what
happened last year to American League relievers was historic.
Ten Most Expensive A.L.
Relievers 2012
|
Bombarding everyone with charts seems lazy, but this next one is an important framework for this
discussion.
Ten Most Expensive
A.L. Relievers 2009-2001
|
Year
|
$
|
Cost
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TOUT
|
|
|
2011
|
$14
|
$19
|
-$5
|
$21
|
$21
|
$23
|
|
|
2010
|
$16
|
$19
|
-$3
|
$19
|
$16
|
$19
|
|
|
2009
|
$15
|
$22
|
-$7
|
$19
|
$17
|
$18
|
You would expect that
seasoned fantasy/Rotisserie players would have recognized that 2012 was an
anomaly in terms of ROI. But fantasy players have short memories and continued
throughout last year to incorrectly assume that closers have universally been terrible investments
forever and ever.
The real answer to this
question is that closers are typically subpar investments but in 2012 they were
terrible investments.
Much of this was due to
injury. Rivera, Santos, Bailey, Farnsworth, and Soria all lost significant time
to injury. While one or maybe two top closers are lost to injury early, to lose
five is unprecedented.
Rotoman's values come out after all of these expert
auctions take place, so his $12 average bid limit on a group of six dollar
earners seems like a more accurate assessment if you auction on or near Opening
Day (like many of us do). This is still a poor return, but not nearly as
horrific as $6/$16.
So 2012 is a difficult year
on which to perform any kind of serious kind of analysis. There is no
discernible trend to examine and pontificating on whether or not this trend
will continue in 2013 is silly (it almost definitely won't).
Next Ten Most Expensive
(11-20) A.L. Relievers 2012
There is a great deal of rallying in the second tier. Perez, Johnson, and Balfour all do what they are paid to do and then some. Holland picks up the slack for Soria (and perhaps for Soria's owners). But some of the earnings here are from Ogando, Pestano, and Robertson: pitchers that started out as set-ups and stayed set-ups. This chart is Exhibit A for why you must make sure you buy non closers in deep formats. Every pitcher here earned $6 or more. I don't like the idea of spending more than $1-2 on set ups, but most of these pitchers were either closers or getting paid like they might be closers. Even the $7 Pestano bid in LABR came at the height of the Chris Perez uncertainty. But, once again, there are some values to be had toward the bottom. |
Next Ten Most Expensive
(21-30) A.L. Relievers 2012
|
#
|
Player
|
$
|
Sal
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2011
|
|
21
|
Alfredo
Aceves
|
$9
|
3
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
10
|
$17
|
|
22
|
Jonathan
Broxton
|
$10
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
6
|
5
|
$1
|
|
23
|
Brian
Fuentes
|
$0
|
3
|
-3
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
$10
|
|
24
|
Francisco
Cordero
|
-$1
|
3
|
-3
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
$19
|
|
25
|
Mark
Melancon
|
$0
|
3
|
-2
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
$15
|
|
26
|
Fautino
De Los Santos
|
-$1
|
2
|
-3
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
$3
|
|
|
27
|
Aaron
Crow
|
$8
|
2
|
6
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
$6
|
|
28
|
Glen
Perkins
|
$16
|
2
|
14
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
$9
|
|
|
29
|
Jesse
Crain
|
$8
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
$11
|
|
30
|
Wade
Davis
|
$12
|
2
|
10
|
5
|
1
|
$6
|
||
|
Average
|
$6
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
$10
|
Fuentes, Cordero, Melancon,
and De Los Santos don't help out, but more than half of the pitchers on this
chart earn $8 or more. If you spent $75 on your pitching staff bought seven par
pitchers and two $2 pitchers with an $8 return apiece, that would give you $87
in earnings. In most leagues, you're in contention with this staff.
There's an even better
reason to avoid spending $3-4 on closers-in-waiting.
Ten Best A.L. Relievers, $1
or Less Spent
|
#
|
Player
|
$
|
Sal
|
+/-
|
CBS
|
LABR
|
TW
|
PK
|
2011
|
|
1
|
Fernando
Rodney
|
$32
|
32
|
R3
|
$1
|
||||
|
2
|
Rafael
Soriano
|
$21
|
1
|
21
|
2
|
1
|
$3
|
||
|
3
|
Tom
Wilhelmsen
|
$21
|
21
|
$4
|
|||||
|
4
|
Ryan
Cook
|
$20
|
20
|
||||||
|
5
|
Ernesto
Frieri
|
$19
|
19
|
$5
|
|||||
|
6
|
Casey
Janssen
|
$17
|
17
|
R3
|
$10
|
||||
|
7
|
Hisashi
Iwakuma
|
$15
|
1
|
13
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
8
|
Darren
O'Day
|
$15
|
15
|
$0
|
|||||
|
9
|
Jake
McGee
|
$15
|
0
|
14
|
1
|
3
|
$3
|
||
|
10
|
Jared
Burton
|
$13
|
13
|
$0
|
|||||
|
Average
|
$19
|
1
|
16
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
$3
|
This is the view from the
cheap seats.
Iwakuma's included here
because he was in the Mariners pen at the beginning of the season. The rest of
these pitchers were honest-to-goodness relievers. Frieri was in the
National League to start the year, but everyone else was with an
American League organization...and more than a few were in the Majors to start
the year.
Getting Pestano for $4 is
certainly a positive outcome. But why spend $4 on Pestano when you can get
Parkins for $2, Soriano for $1 and several other arms for free?
This is the real story with
relievers. Closer failure was a one-time deal. But cheap relievers that produce
happens every year...yet too many continue to insist on spending more than a
buck or two for their set up men.
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