I think I've already used
"the sun rises, the sun sets" so let's just skip that part and get to
the point. For the fifth year in a row the pitchers in this chart lose money.
Next 10 (11-20) Most
Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
It's not the drubbing that we have seen in some years, but as the college football coach at my alma mater used to say, a loss is a loss. While the nature of this group remains the same, what has changed is that where the market used to show some reticence, now they're getting cute. These pitchers received a $3 average raise from what they earned in 2011. Contrast that to the $4 pay cut they got in 2010 and the $5 cut received in 2009. |
Of course I'm being
disingenuous. The market isn't getting greedy as much as these pitchers were simply
part of a weaker crop.
The Second Tier: 2009-2012
Year
|
$
|
Sal
|
+/-
|
Prior Year
|
2009
|
$12
|
17
|
-5
|
$22
|
2010
|
$13
|
14
|
-1
|
$18
|
2011
|
$11
|
15
|
-3
|
$18
|
2012
|
$13
|
16
|
-3
|
$13
|
What happened to the second
tier? They're nine dollars worse per pitcher than they were in
2009?
You would think or expect
that there was a mass exodus of quality starting pitchers to the National
League last winter. But no, Gio Gonzalez was the only significant export.
What's happening is that
the experts don't simply walk into the room and price pitchers based on what
happened the year before (after all, that's why we're experts!). We can't help but
stick our noses in, make our own value judgments, and futz around with the pecking
order. Some of these changes are obvious (Darvish wasn't in the Majors in 2011
so his prior earnings from Japan aren’t reflected in the 2011 column), others
less so in the clear light of hindsight (Ubaldo Jimenez? Really?).
The market isn't ridiculous,
though. Most of the next best things get pushed not all the way to the bottom
of the heap, but into the next class of pitchers below.
Next 10 (21-30) Most
Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
|
Fister's the guy who should have at least been in the second tier, but based solely on 2011 earnings alone you can make pretty good cases for Masterson and Kuroda as well. Overall, the pitchers in this group earned more in 2011 than the pitchers in the second group did.
In 2011. In 2012, the
market was correct to bet less on this group, albeit barely.
You obviously want the break even stats from 21-30, not the $3 loss from 11-20. But the fact that it's this
close tells me that the market isn't that far off in either case. These are some
pretty good guesses on a fairly erratic group of starting pitchers. CBS is a
slightly in front of the curve, but overall this is a very tight pattern the
experts are running.
Next 10 (31-40) Most
Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
|
It continues here. Tout Wars is a little bit lower, which could have something to do with a new rule variaton.
Tout Wars added a
"swingman" option last year, allowing them to carry 13 hitters and 10
pitchers instead of the usual 14 hitters and nine pitchers. In theory, any team
could have added a tenth pitcher instead of a fourteenth hitter. But instead of
pushing up the pitching prices, it appears this may have pushed the pitching
prices down. The ability to throw a dollar down on a tenth pitcher added
flexibility and allowed teams to fool around in the endgame. This happens in
LABR as well. The hierarchy remains the same at the top; the money only shifts
from the single-digit pitchers to the extra pitchers at the bottom.
At the very end, everyone
runs out of money.
Next 10 (41-50) Most
Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
|
But there are still some good pitchers here, no? Humber, Tomlin, and Colon all earned double-digits in 2011, while Vargas came pretty close. So this is the key? Spend all your money on offense, and then try to get lucky with your pitching.
As I do every year, I
reject this notion. You want bargains, but you need stats.
Skimming the bottom of the
pool in the hopes you get a $21 season from Vargas is important, yes. But you
need to make sure you get your pitching points, and the best way to do that is
to spend your money on the big dogs.
Bracket
|
1-10
|
11-20
|
21-30
|
31-40
|
41-50
|
|||||
Earned
|
Cost
|
Earned
|
Cost
|
Earned
|
Cost
|
Earned
|
Cost
|
Earned
|
Cost
|
|
2009
|
$25
|
23
|
$12
|
17
|
$12
|
12
|
$6
|
6
|
$5
|
3
|
2010
|
$18
|
24
|
$13
|
14
|
$8
|
10
|
$12
|
7
|
$4
|
4
|
2011
|
$24
|
23
|
$11
|
15
|
$13
|
11
|
$6
|
6
|
$7
|
4
|
2012
|
$23
|
24
|
$13
|
16
|
$12
|
12
|
$7
|
8
|
$8
|
4
|
$22.50
|
$23.50
|
$12.25
|
$15.50
|
$11.25
|
$11.25
|
$7.75
|
$6.75
|
$6.00
|
$3.75
|
If one year's worth of
results don't do the trick for you, four years should give you a push in this
direction. The profit trend on the bottom pitchers has improved the last two
years, but a $2.25 per pitcher profit at the bottom of the heap isn't enough to
make you ignore the stronger pitchers in the league. You don't want to spend
all of your money at the top any more than you want to spend it all at the
bottom, but you do need to make sure you buy some pitching if
you hope to contend for a title.
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