Friday, December 21, 2012

2012 A.L. Starting Pitchers: Part II


I think I've already used "the sun rises, the sun sets" so let's just skip that part and get to the point. For the fifth year in a row the pitchers in this chart lose money.

Next 10 (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
# Player $ Sal +/- CBS LABR TW PK 2011
11 Yu Darvish $23 19 5 18 18 20 22
12 Matt Moore $17 19 -2 17 20 19 19 $2
13 Josh Beckett $4 17 -12 17 16 17 17 $27
14 Michael Pineda 16 -16 18 16 14 9 $19
15 Brandon Morrow $19 16 3 18 15 14 15 $12
16 Ubaldo Jimenez $0 15 -15 17 16 12 14 $5
17 Derek Holland $15 15 0 15 14 15 15 $15
18 Max Scherzer $25 14 10 16 13 14 13 $13
19 Jeremy Hellickson $18 14 4 14 14 15 14 $21
20 Brandon McCarthy $12 14 -2 13 14 14 14 $17
Average $13 16 -3 16 16 15 13 $13

It's not the drubbing that we have seen in some years, but as the college football coach at my alma mater used to say, a loss is a loss. While the nature of this group remains the same, what has changed is that where the market used to show some reticence, now they're getting cute. These pitchers received a $3 average raise from what they earned in 2011. Contrast that to the $4 pay cut they got in 2010 and the $5 cut received in 2009.










Of course I'm being disingenuous. The market isn't getting greedy as much as these pitchers were simply part of a weaker crop.

The Second Tier: 2009-2012
Year
$
Sal
+/-
Prior Year
2009
$12
17
-5
$22
2010
$13
14
-1
$18
2011
$11
15
-3
$18
2012
$13
16
-3
$13

What happened to the second tier? They're nine dollars worse per pitcher than they were in 2009?

You would think or expect that there was a mass exodus of quality starting pitchers to the National League last winter. But no, Gio Gonzalez was the only significant export.

What's happening is that the experts don't simply walk into the room and price pitchers based on what happened the year before (after all, that's why we're experts!). We can't help but stick our noses in, make our own value judgments, and futz around with the pecking order. Some of these changes are obvious (Darvish wasn't in the Majors in 2011 so his prior earnings from Japan aren’t reflected in the 2011 column), others less so in the clear light of hindsight (Ubaldo Jimenez? Really?).

The market isn't ridiculous, though. Most of the next best things get pushed not all the way to the bottom of the heap, but into the next class of pitchers below.

Next 10 (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
# Player $ Sal +/- CBS LABR TW PK 2011
21 Ervin Santana $9 14 -5 14 13 14 14 $20
22 John Danks ($0) 13 -13 14 12 13 14 $8
23 Colby Lewis $14 12 2 14 11 12 13 $16
24 Scott Baker 12 -12 14 14 8 $15
25 Doug Fister $19 12 7 13 12 11 13 $25
26 Hiroki Kuroda $27 12 15 10 14 12 14 $18
27 Chris Sale $30 12 18 12 13 11 13 $11
28 Clay Buchholz $11 12 -1 11 13 11 14 $7
29 Justin Masterson $7 11 -4 13 12 9 12 $18
30 Neftali Feliz $6 11 -5 14 10 8 8 $16
Average $12 12 0 13 12 11 10 $15










Fister's the guy who should have at least been in the second tier, but based solely on 2011 earnings alone you can make pretty good cases for Masterson and Kuroda as well. Overall, the pitchers in this group earned more in 2011 than the pitchers in the second group did.

In 2011. In 2012, the market was correct to bet less on this group, albeit barely.

You obviously want the break even stats from 21-30, not the $3 loss from 11-20. But the fact that it's this close tells me that the market isn't that far off in either case. These are some pretty good guesses on a fairly erratic group of starting pitchers. CBS is a slightly in front of the curve, but overall this is a very tight pattern the experts are running.

Next 10 (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
# Player $ Sal +/- CBS LABR TW PK 2011
31 Gavin Floyd $13 10 2 8 11 12 11 $15
32 Francisco Liriano $5 10 -5 10 6 13 10 $2
33 Jake Peavy $27 9 19 8 10 8 9 $6
34 Daniel Bard -$2 9 -11 11 13 2 9 $10
35 Jeff Niemann $5 7 -2 6 8 8 7 $11
36 Jonathan Sanchez -$9 7 -16 9 7 6 8 $2
37 Luke Hochevar $3 7 -4 6 7 8 7 $9
38 Matt Harrison $23 7 16 8 6 6 7 $16
39 Henderson Alvarez $2 7 -4 9 5 6 4 $5
40 Ivan Nova $8 6 1 8 6 5 7 $13
Average $7 8 0 8 8 7 7 $9










It continues here. Tout Wars is a little bit lower, which could have something to do with a new rule variaton.

Tout Wars added a "swingman" option last year, allowing them to carry 13 hitters and 10 pitchers instead of the usual 14 hitters and nine pitchers. In theory, any team could have added a tenth pitcher instead of a fourteenth hitter. But instead of pushing up the pitching prices, it appears this may have pushed the pitching prices down. The ability to throw a dollar down on a tenth pitcher added flexibility and allowed teams to fool around in the endgame. This happens in LABR as well. The hierarchy remains the same at the top; the money only shifts from the single-digit pitchers to the extra pitchers at the bottom.

At the very end, everyone runs out of money.

Next 10 (41-50) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2012
# Player $ Sal +/- CBS LABR TW PK 2011
41 Phil Hughes $19 6 13 7 6 4 9 -$1
42 Rick Porcello $4 5 -1 4 7 5 6 $6
43 Jason Vargas $21 5 16 7 2 5 3 $9
44 Felipe Paulino $7 5 2 4 4 6 3 $6
45 Philip Humber -$2 4 -6 5 4 4 5 $14
46 Jarrod Parker $19 4 15 3 6 3 R1
47 Brian Matusz $2 4 -2 4 1 7 5 -$13
48 Josh Tomlin -$2 4 -6 4 2 5 5 $14
49 Bartolo Colon $15 3 13 3 2 3 2 $11
50 Brett Cecil -$1 3 -3 2 3 3 R2 $3
Average $8 4 4 4 4 5 3 $5










But there are still some good pitchers here, no? Humber, Tomlin, and Colon all earned double-digits in 2011, while Vargas came pretty close. So this is the key? Spend all your money on offense, and then try to get lucky with your pitching.

As I do every year, I reject this notion. You want bargains, but you need stats.

Skimming the bottom of the pool in the hopes you get a $21 season from Vargas is important, yes. But you need to make sure you get your pitching points, and the best way to do that is to spend your money on the big dogs.

Bracket
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
Earned
Cost
Earned
Cost
Earned
Cost
Earned
Cost
Earned
Cost
2009
$25
23
$12
17
$12
12
$6
6
$5
3
2010
$18
24
$13
14
$8
10
$12
7
$4
4
2011
$24
23
$11
15
$13
11
$6
6
$7
4
2012
$23
24
$13
16
$12
12
$7
8
$8
4
$22.50
$23.50
$12.25
$15.50
$11.25
$11.25
$7.75
$6.75
$6.00
$3.75

If one year's worth of results don't do the trick for you, four years should give you a push in this direction. The profit trend on the bottom pitchers has improved the last two years, but a $2.25 per pitcher profit at the bottom of the heap isn't enough to make you ignore the stronger pitchers in the league. You don't want to spend all of your money at the top any more than you want to spend it all at the bottom, but you do need to make sure you buy some pitching if you hope to contend for a title.

No comments: