2012 A.L. Third Basemen

Relative to what these players earned in 2011, the expert market was super optimistic about them coming into 2012.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Third Basemen 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Jose Bautista	$16	35	-19	38	35	32	36	$34
2	Evan Longoria	$14	32	-19	33	33	31	31	$20
3	Adrian Beltre	$32	29	3	30	29	29	28	$26
4	Brett Lawrie	$17	29	-12	30	28	29	26	$9
5	Alex Rodriguez	$19	24	-5	24	24	24	24	$16
6	Michael Young	$16	23	-7	22	23	23	23	$30
7	Kevin Youkilis	$11	21	-10	20	20	24	20	$16
8	Mark Reynolds	$11	19	-8	19	17	22	18	$19
9	Edwin Encarnacion	$31	16	15	14	17	18	16	$17
10	Mike Moustakas	$14	15	-1	15	15	14	13	$6
	Average	$18	24	-6	25	24	25	24	$19

The five-dollar raise per player (from 2011's earnings to 2012's salary) is the biggest raise any position in the A.L. received this year. It isn't unprecedented for the position, though; two years ago third basemen received a seven-dollar per player raise from what they had earned the previous year.

In 2010, seven third basemen received raises of $8 or more. Last year, the hefty raises were mostly concentrated in four players: Longoria, Lawrie, A-Rod, and Moustakas. All four of the big raises were failures; only Moustakas came close to earning what the market paid. A-Rod was a mild flop, Lawrie was a pretty big flop, and Longoria lost at last $18 for the second year in a row.

So the results are in? Stray too far past what a player earned the previous year and you'll lose your shirt...right?

Ten Biggest A.L. Raises: 2011-2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011	Change
1	Brett Lawrie	$17	29	-12	30	28	29	26	$9	$20
2	Adam Dunn	$16	14	2	11	16	15	13	-$2	$16
3	Yoenis Cespedes	$25	14	11	13	15	15	11		$14
4	Lorenzo Cain	$9	14	-5	12	13	17	11	$0	$14
5	Shin-Soo Choo	$25	24	1	25	23	24	24	$11	$13
6	Desmond Jennings	$20	26	-6	26	25	27	26	$13	$13
7	Evan Longoria	$14	32	-19	33	33	31	31	$20	$12
8	Dayan Viciedo	$16	13	3	14	13	11	13	$2	$11
9	Joe Mauer	$25	19	6	16	20	20	18	$8	$11
10	Jason Kipnis	$24	17	7	15	19	18	17	$7	$11
	Average	$19	20	-1	20	21	21	19	$7	$13

Teling people not to pay too far past what a player earned the previous year is the kind of knee-jerk advice I give that the kids on Twitter call #analysis. But the results last year tell quite a different story. Six of the 10 hitters that got raises not only outdid their 2011 but turned a profit. Lawrie and Longoria were bad, but everyone else was somewhere between subpar (Cain) and quite profitable (Cespedes).

Rotoman does what I would have done on a macro level. He give these hitters a big thumbs down as a group and thinks you shouldn't buy a single one of these guys...at least not if you're fighting against the experts in CBS, LABR, and Tout.

LABR and Tout Wars go out on the biggest limb, particularly on the mid-tier guys like Dunn, Cespedes and Cain. CBS comes out bigger on big-ticket items Lawrie and Longoria. Twenty-eight dollars is a lot for Lawrie; $30 is anointing him a Top 10 A.L. player. Two dollars seems like a small distinction, but there is a hierarchy.

The same hierarchy exists among the most expensive third basemen too. CBS "wins" the bidding on Bautista, Beltre, Lawrie, and ties on A-Rod, Longoria, and Moose. Tout Wars come in strong on Youk, Reynolds, and Encarnacion. There's a big tie on Young.

But back to the big raises. While the big raises worked out well overall, they didn't work out at third base. Lawrie and Moustakas were young guns that the market got excited about while A-Rod and Longoria continued to have problems with injuries. The players that worked out had similar profiles, so it's even more frustrating from the standpoint of attempting to pinpoint a "correct" auction strategy. The proper conclusion is that players are individuals and it's not a good idea to try to hang a theory on them as a collective (though Lawrie's price was way too high in my opinion).

Something you might have missed while I droned on and on in this section is that every single one of the 10 most expensive third basemen earned at least $11 last year.

Top 10 A.L. Third Basemen 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Adrian Beltre	$32	29	3	30	29	29	28	$26
2	Edwin Encarnacion	$31	16	15	14	17	18	16	$17
3	Chris Davis	$21	9	12	10	7	11	9	$5
4	Kyle Seager	$19	3	17	2	2	4	4	$4
5	Alex Rodriguez	$19	24	-5	24	24	24	24	$16
6	Brett Lawrie	$17	29	-12	30	28	29	26	$9
7	Jose Bautista	$16	35	-19	38	35	32	36	$34
8	Michael Young	$16	23	-7	22	23	23	23	$30
9	Mike Moustakas	$14	15	-1	15	15	14	13	$6
10	Evan Longoria	$14	32	-19	33	33	31	31	$20
	Average	$20	22	-2	22	21	22	21	$17

Davis and Seager replace Reynolds and Youkilis. Otherwise, you've got a pretty stable group on the whole.

It's always easy to cluck your tongues at the Longoria and Bautista buyers in November. There's a reason some owners spent so much money on the position.

The Dirty Dozen Minus One: The Next 11 A.L. Third Basemen, 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
11	Brent Morel	$0	10	-10	11	10	10	9	$9
12	Chris Davis	$21	9	12	10	7	11	9	$5
13	Danny Valencia	$0	9	-8	7	6	13	11	$12
14	Chone Figgins	$0	9	-8	5	12	9	8	$1
15	Lonnie Chisenhall	$4	7	-3	10	8	4	R2	$5
16	Wilson Betemit	$9	6	2	3	9	7	6	$11
17	Alberto Callaspo	$11	4	6	4	6	3	8	$14
18	Kyle Seager	$19	3	17	2	2	4	4	$4
19	Scott Sizemore	$0	1	-1	4				$11
20	Brandon Inge	$6	0	6	1			2	$0
21	Jack Hannahan	$4	0	3	1			1	$7
	Average	$7	5	1	5	5	6	5	$7

Davis, Seager and Callaspo keep this group profitable, but this is a really bad place to put your money.

You had a 36% chance of getting nothing back for your investment and - in the case of Morel, Valencia, and Figgins - that investment was more than just a dollar.

Of course owners were spending big money on the names at the top. Valencia earned $12 in 2011, so $9 seemed like a pretty good bet in 2012. Morel's September was probably a fluke, but he'd earn at least $5.

We want Seager. But there's a better chance we're going to wind up with Morel.