Thursday, November 22, 2012

2012 A.L. Shortstops



One odd reason I like Rotisserie baseball better than the real life version is that we seldom waste too much time arguing about what a guy is worth.

Top 10 A.L. Shortstops 2012
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2011
1
Derek Jeter
$27
19
8
18
20
20
19
$22
2
Alcides Escobar
$25
14
11
12
13
17
13
$16
3
Elvis Andrus
$22
26
-4
25
26
26
26
$26
4
Erick Aybar
$20
19
1
19
18
20
18
$23
5
Alexei Ramirez
$19
20
-1
21
19
19
20
$18
6
Asdrubal Cabrera
$18
21
-3
22
21
20
21
$26
7
J.J. Hardy
$13
17
-4
18
16
18
17
$20
8
Jamey Carroll
$12
6
6
9
4
5
6
$12
9
Trevor Plouffe
$11
5
6
6
5
5
6
$7
10
Pedro Ciriaco
$11
$2
Average
$18
16
1
15
14
15
15
$18

For the fourth year in a row, Derek Jeter earned at least $22. He has been no worse than the fourth best fantasy shortstop in the American League during that time. Everyone knows that at some point in the near or far future Jeter is going to get old, see his skills erode, fall off the map and lose it, but since we do know this it is typically reflected in Jeter's price.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Shortstops
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2011
1
Elvis Andrus
$22
26
-4
25
26
26
26
$26
2
Asdrubal Cabrera
$18
21
-3
22
21
20
21
$26
3
Alexei Ramirez
$19
20
-1
21
19
19
20
$18
4
Derek Jeter
$27
19
8
18
20
20
19
$22
5
Erick Aybar
$20
19
1
19
18
20
18
$23
6
J.J. Hardy
$13
17
-4
18
16
18
17
$20
7
Jhonny Peralta
$10
16
-6
15
17
16
16
$22
8
Yunel Escobar
$11
15
-4
15
14
16
16
$17
9
Alcides Escobar
$25
14
11
12
13
17
13
$16
10
Cliff Pennington
$7
11
-4
10
10
13
12
$15
Average
$17
18
-1
18
17
19
18
$20

For the last two years, Jeter has not been the most expensive shortstop in the American League. Some of this is due to Jeter's advanced age. But there's more to it than that. Jeter has become part of a crowded field of young and/or talented players. More important than how talented these guys are, they are earners.

Alexei Ramirez is the biggest example of this phenomenon. His 651 OPS was 79th among qualifiers in the American League. Only Yunel Escobar, Dustin Ackley, and Jemile Weeks were worse. Yet Ramirez earned $19 last year...or $1 more than in he did in 2011. Ramirez bolstered his value while being a poorer hitter by stealing 20 bases (keeping his batting average decent while his OBP cratered certainly helped).

One of the things that drive numbers-oriented baseball fans nuts about fantasy baseball is how bad they think it is at measuring a player's true value. I used to be one of those fantasy nuts who simply poo-pooed these criticisms. Now, when I look at guys like Ramirez I'm not so sure.

But I don't run these charts to waste your time trying to talk you out of playing fantasy baseball. There are plenty of people out there who would be more than happy to do that. These charts are designed to instruct and inform on player valuation. I bring up the intersection of real life and fantasy not to make you feel bad about "overvaluing" Ramirez but to point you toward the opportunity that lies within.

FangraphsBaseball Prospectus and many other baseball sites have done so much to improve our baseball knowledge. But as long as we continue to play traditional 5x5 Rotisserie (and whether we should or should not do so is an argument for another day and probably a different web site), we must know what these guys are worth.

Players like J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta can earn in the neighborhood of $20 or so - as evidenced by what Hardy and Peralta did in 2011. But players like Hardy and Peralta will lose a lot of ground if they slip in any appreciable way in batting average - as evidenced by what they did in 2012.

Guys like Aybar and Ramirez are the types of players I want. Even in off years, they still earned $20 or close to it because they contribute across the board. It isn't pretty, and even in deep leagues the stats feel like they're coming in dribs and drabs. But these are the kinds of guys I want on my fantasy teams...particularly if the price is right.

And guys like Derek Jeter are fantasy gold.

In addition to the stolen bases, what we really want are plenty of plate appearances and a positive batting average outcome.

This powers the runs/RBI engine. These categories are important but far too often underrated. If a guy misses too much playing time, he's going to hurt you in both of these categories. It doesn't matter if this is because of injury or because he's a platoon player. Miss too many at bats, and odds are great that you're going to miss out on a title.

While everyone gets excited about Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and all of the other big time power hitters out there, all Jeter manages to do is produce $25+ worth of value without costing what he winds up earning.

It isn't sexy, it isn't glamorous, and it isn't as much as owning Pujols, Fielder, or Cabrera. But it's all part of a winning formula.

And - for more than any other reason -  that's why I play this game.

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