2012 A.L. Second Basemen

Last year at the end of my American League second base write-up, I predicted that the play in 2012 would be to pay more for the top dogs.

The play this year is going to be paying more for the big four of Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler and Zobrist. The position looks risky after those four, and while some are going to be tempted to shell out big bucks for Weeks, I'd expect some regression for him in his first full Major League season.

Boy, did I nail this one.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Second Basemen 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Robinson Cano	$31	36	-5	33	39	37	34	$32
2	Dustin Pedroia	$24	32	-8	32	33	31	32	$34
3	Ian Kinsler	$23	30	-7	28	30	33	29	$30
4	Ben Zobrist	$22	24	-1	24	23	24	24	$26
5	Howie Kendrick	$19	23	-4	22	21	25	22	$23
6	Dustin Ackley	$12	18	-6	17	19	18	13	$10
7	Jason Kipnis	$24	17	7	15	19	18	17	$7
8	Jemile Weeks	$6	17	-11	15	17	20	17	$17
9	Kelly Johnson	$12	16	-4	15	15	19	16	$14
10	Ryan Raburn	($2)	11	-13	11	9	12	10	$11
	Average	$17	22	-5	21	23	24	21	$20

Wait, what?

How did I possibly "nail" anything? Cano, Pedroia and Kinsler all lost at least five dollars? What are you, Mike, some kind of moron that uses an annoying convention like talking to himself in the third person?

Ten Most Expensive Second Basemen 2012

	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
Top 4 2B	$25	31	-5	29	31	31	30	$31
Bottom 6 2B	$12	17	-5	16	17	19	16	$14

Here is another way of looking at the 10 most expensive hitters...broken down by what I classified as the "big four" (Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Zobrist) and everyone else.

I go through this every year so I might as well get it out of the way now. A five-dollar per player loss on a $31 investment is better than a five dollar per player loss on a $17 investment…but why exactly is this?

The owner that spends $31 and gets back $25 worth of stats gets back 80 cents on the dollar for his trouble. The owner that spends $17 and gets back $12 worth of stats only gets back 70 cents on the dollar. Neither outcome is the desired one, but you are better off with the $25 player.

The 2011 column supports this notion further. The owners spending big are paying these players what they earned in 2011. They might fail, but historically they can earn what you are paying them. The next group of second basemen earned $3 less than what they were paid this spring. The market really, really wanted to like these guys.

CBS used to be the crazy guy in the room spending way too much money. Now they're the ones hanging back while LABR and Tout Wars go to town. Some of these differences aren't trivial either. A six dollar difference on Cano (CBS/LABR). Five dollars on Kinsler (CBS/Tout), five dollars on Weeks (CBS/Tout), four dollars on Johnson (CBS/Tout), and four on Kipnis (CBS/LABR).

LABR and Tout were a little more hyped in general but in particular were really pushing the next best things. Was that really the best place to spend your money?

Top 10 A.L. Second Basemen 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Robinson Cano	$31	36	-5	33	39	37	34	$32
2	Dustin Pedroia	$24	32	-8	32	33	31	32	$34
3	Jason Kipnis	$24	17	7	15	19	18	17	$7
4	Ian Kinsler	$23	30	-7	28	30	33	29	$30
5	Ben Zobrist	$22	24	-1	24	23	24	24	$26
6	Howie Kendrick	$19	23	-4	22	21	25	22	$23
7	Jeff Keppinger	$15	2	13	2	3	2	3	$9
8	Mike Aviles	$15	9	6	8	9	9	6	$11
9	Kelly Johnson	$12	16	-4	15	15	19	16	$14
10	Dustin Ackley	$12	18	-6	17	19	18	13	$10
	Average	$20	21	-1	20	21	22	20	$19

Despite his fall Post All-Star, Kipnis was a win, Ackley was a slight loss and you took a bath with Weeks.

I think we all know the answer to this question. When we spend big on rookies we want Kipnis, know we might wind up with Weeks, and secretly breathe a sigh of relief if the worst we do is Ackley.

The salary differences between the three expert leagues make a pretty big difference in how we feel about these picks/players. I love Robbie Cano at $33, even though I am taking a two dollar loss. At $39, I think I'd rather have Jose Bautista at $35 or Evan Longoria at $31. Ian Kinsler at $28 seems like a no lose proposition. At $33, it seems like you're paying for the best year Kinsler can possibly have assuming full health.

Anecdotally, I want to say that there is some kind of position scarcity factor coming into play for Tout Wars. The reality is that the position was thinner than in most years. Brian Roberts' health issues led to a great deal of uncertainty while Alexi Casilla and Jamey Carroll weren't the most formidable keystone combination for the Twins. There weren't too many examples of CBS overpaying at second base, but Carroll at $9 and Ramon Santiago at $3 both were reaches. Assuming the position is thicker this year, we might not see the same aggressive bidding that we saw last spring at the keystone.