The Type of Player We Really Overvalue (And, No, It's Not Closers)

Last month - when I set out to see if closers are overvalued - I discovered that first basemen are overvalued.

But only in the American League. From 2009 through 2011, the 10 most expensive first basemen in the A.L. year over year returned a mere 67 cents on the dollar.

Why was this? What was happening that A.L. first basemen were such poor investments?

  

Ten Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen, 2011

	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Miguel Cabrera	$36	39	-4	48	35	35	38	$38
2	Adrian Gonzalez	$36	36	-1	42	34	33	36	$27
3	Mark Teixeira	$24	35	-11	38	36	30	31	$25
4	Kevin Youkilis	$16	32	-17	35	33	29	30	$21
5	Adam Dunn	-$2	31	-33	34	28	30	24	$24
6	Paul Konerko	$26	25	1	30	23	23	23	$32
7	Billy Butler	$22	24	-2	27	22	23	25	$23
8	Kendrys Morales		22	-22	30	18	17	20	$9
9	Justin Morneau	$2	21	-18	26	16	20	20	$19
10	Derrek Lee	$8	17	-9	21	17	14	16	$17
	Average	$17	28	-12	33	26	26	26	$24

Last year the position didn't suffer so much on the whole, but rather was a population of haves and have nots. You would have been better off with the lost season that was Kendrys Morales than with the season that was put up by Adam Dunn. Morneau wasn't that much better. But while the good hitters at first were good, only Konerko turned a profit. Miggy was a great player last year, but he was still overpaid by Rotisserie standards.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen 2010

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	PK	ZIPS	2009
1	Miguel Cabrera	$38	$37	0	$36	$32	$31
2	Mark Teixeira	$25	$37	-12	$32	$26	$28
3	Kevin Youkilis	$21	$30	-9	$27	$23	$25
4	Justin Morneau	$19	$29	-10	$26	$26	$20
5	Kendrys Morales	$9	$27	-18	$24	$19	$27
6	Billy Butler	$23	$25	-2	$23	$23	$21
7	Carlos Pena	$12	$25	-13	$18	$21	$18
8	Chris Davis	$0	$16	-16	$13	$17	$9
9	Paul Konerko	$32	$15	+17	$12	$17	$18
10	Nick Johnson	$0	$12	-12	$9	$11	$15
	Average	$18	$25	-8	$22	$22	$21

2010 was better, but not by that much. Konerko turned a huge profit this time around, but Miggy was the only other player that (barely) turned a profit. Eight out of 10 A.L. first basemen lost money, with six of the 10 losing money in double digits.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen 2009

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Miguel Cabrera	$31	$38	-8	$30	$35	$33
2	Mark Teixeira	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$33
3	Justin Morneau	$20	$33	-13	$26	$26	$29
4	Kevin Youkilis	$25	$29	-4	$25	$21	$32
5	Chris Davis	$9	$27	-18	$21	$20	$15
6	Carlos Pena	$18	$22	-4	$20	$20	$21
7	Aubrey Huff	$9	$21	-12	$23	$15	$32
8	Carlos Guillen	$6	$19	-13	$16	$17	$16
9	Mike Jacobs	$7	$16	-9	$16	$7	$19
10	Paul Konerko	$18	$15	+3	$16	$14	$12
	Average	$17	$26	-9	$22	$21	$24

We see the same cast of characters with some of the same results. Cabrera is somewhat overrated...at least in Roto. Teixeira is way overrated, as is Morneau. Konerko continues to be underrated until the market finally catches up and starts paying the man.

But who cares what happened in 2009? Back to my original question: why have American League first basemen underperformed?

Some of the poor ROI here is due to the usual culprits: injuries, disappointing prospects, and fading veterans. This happens at any position in baseball, and I'm not necessarily sure it happens more here.

But there's something else going on here. Players like Cabrera, Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez are overpaid.

It's counterintuitive to say that the 2010 edition of Cabrera or the 2011 edition of Gonzalez is overpaid. After all, they broke even, and getting your money back on a stud hitter is worth its weight in gold, right?

The problem in both cases is that betting in the mid to high $30s on a player with no significant stolen base ability is like betting big on an inside straight in poker. You might win the hand, but that doesn't mean you made a good bet.

Cabrera has been an incredible baseball player the last three years. But as amazing as his 38/126/3/111/.328 line was in 2010, that was "only" good for a $38 season. There's a peak on what a player like Cabrera can earn because he doesn't run. And if a player's batting average normalizes (like Gonzalez's has this year), you're not going to pull that inside straight.

The market also overpays for power. Mark Teixeira is a three-category guy (runs, RBI, HR). But year after the year the market pays him like he's a five category stud. He's not. While Tex is a solid source of power, dropping this much of your Roto budget onto a one-dimensional power hitter takes resources away from the steals and batting average you need to buy elsewhere.

In Rotisserie, identifying bargains is only half of the puzzle. You also need to be able to identify market inefficiencies as well. The expert market has generally overspent for one-dimensional power the last three years, but particularly so in the American League at first base. It wasn't an accident that I bought Casey Kotchman for $1 last year in the CBS expert league. Rather than chase a first baseman past the point of possible return, I figured I'd just hold my nose and throw a buck down on Kotchman. It worked like a charm but even if it didn't I would have only lost $1 for my troubles, and not taken the $12 loss that Cabrera's CBS owner took or the $14 loss that CBS's Teixeira owner took.