Boston Red Sox trade Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez,
and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Ivan De Jesus Jr., James Loney,
Allen Webster and two players to be named later (Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry
Sands).
N.L.-only
Adrian
Gonzalez is obviously the
break-the-bank-spend-every-last-plugged-nickel-that-you-have player in this
deal. He's having a disappointing season by any yardstick you choose to use but
from a fantasy perspective is only disappointing if you expected him to
replicate what he did in 2011. Gonzalez is on pace to earn in the mid-to-high
$20s, which is in line with what he did from 2008-2010. These aren't superstar
numbers, but it's extremely unlikely that there is going to be a free agent
hitter who can make the potential impact that Gonzalez can over the last 35
games of the regular season. Dodger Stadium is going to blunt Gonzalez's
potential impact, but with their new supercharged line-up the RBI opportunities
will be there. As I said above, you have to break the bank if you can do so.
Josh
Beckett
If
you are an N.L.-only owner, your gut might be telling you that all Beckett
needs is a change of scenery to fix what ails him. The reality, though, is that
while the move from cozy Fenway to cavernous Dodger Stadium will help, the
arrow is pointing the wrong way for Beckett. He has a 7.53 ERA in his last
eight starts, and while his 4.89 FIP indicates some bad luck, that's still
poor. Beckett's fastball velocity is down, and while reports of him throwing in
the mid 80s are overblown, the fact remains that his velocity if off about 2-3
MPH from last season. And - in case you're wondering - Beckett's projected
schedule the rest of the way isn't a cakewalk.
@COL,
ARZ, @SF, vs STL, @WAS, @SD, SF
Tomorrow's
start is brutal, but if you sit him in weekly leagues you miss the Arizona
start as well. I don't like the St. Louis match-up even if it's at home and the
Nationals in Washington isn't a favorable start either. That leaves four starts
for Beckett where he's a good play. How much do you want to pay for four
starts?
Carl
Crawford
He's
an obvious factor in non-keeper. Figuring out what to bid in keeper is an
exercise in guesswork. Will he be back on Opening Day 2013? Will he return to
form, or even close to form? Will he run the way he used to in Tampa Bay? I
doubt there's a $40 jackpot lurking here for bargain hunters; it seems like $30
is a more realistic ceiling assuming a full season. $15-20 is probably the play
here, but keep in mind that everyone is going to have the same mindset; $25 is
the bid you want to make if you really are feeling good about Crawford. Unless
inflation is high in your league or projected available outfielders are thin I
wouldn't keep Crawford at this point at $25.
Nick
Punto
Punto
is a serviceable third middle infielder in N.L.-only, but here's hoping that by
now you dumped into someone better.
A.L.-only
James
Loney
The
only reason to bid aggressively on Loney is if you're the owner that lost out
on Gonzalez. This is a sharp drop in talent and stats, though; Loney has a
lousy four home runs this year and can't even be counted on for batting
average. The park shift might help a little, but then again Loney could very
well finish the year without hitting another home run. He's also going to be in
a platoon with Mauro Gomez the rest of the way. Gomez might be the
better play if you're looking for upside.
Allen
Webster
If
you can bid on minor leaguers in your league, Webster is probably the guy you
want to bid aggressively on. John Sickels rated him as a B+ prospect in his analysis
of the trade and B+ pitching prospects are worth grabbing in the late
second or early third round of leagues with farm systems. Webster is in AA now;
I think his ETA is mid-2013.
Ivan
De Jesus Jr.
De
Jesus Jr. might eventually make the Majors, but his bat is poor, he doesn't
steal bases, and if he ever does start he'd be in there for his glove. Pass.
Jerry
Sands/Rubby De La Rosa
We
can't bid on these guys in my league because they're players to be named later
and technically still in the National League. de la Rosa is the more
interesting one of the two. He's got good stuff and while consistency has been
a concern perhaps a change of scenery might help. Sands is more of a future
platoon/depth guy, though his power potential makes him intriguing in Roto. If
you can bid on these guys go ahead, but de la Rosa is where I'd put my money.
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