One of the early memes that pervaded fantasy baseball this year
was that closers were extremely bad, have always been bad, and that you were an
ignorant cretin if you dared to suggest otherwise.
But is this truly the case?
The brain trust at Roto Think Tank (that being me) decided to
delve into this truism and see if this is a myth or fact.
Rate of Return on
Investment by Position: 2009-2011
POS
|
%
|
A.L. 1B
|
66%
|
N.L. 3B
|
68%
|
A.L. OF
|
72%
|
A.L. RP
|
75%
|
N.L. C
|
76%
|
N.L. SS
|
77%
|
A.L. 3B
|
79%
|
A.L 2B
|
81%
|
N.L. 1B
|
81%
|
N.L. RP
|
83%
|
N.L. SP
|
83%
|
A.L. C
|
86%
|
N.L. OF
|
94%
|
A.L. SP
|
96%
|
A.L. SS
|
98%
|
N.L. 2B
|
98%
|
This chart is a summary of the rate of return by position from
2009-2011 using the CBS, LABR and Tout Wars expert auction prices and my
variation on the Patton and Company 5x5 dollar values.
So are closers a bad investment? Yes...but no more so than some of
the other positions on the diamond.
Should we take these data and say that because American League
first basemen offer the worst return that they are bad investments across the
board and we should never purchase another first baseman again? Of course not.
But that's exactly what we do with closers. We scrutinize every
single failure and say that it's a bad idea to buy any closer ever because a handful of
closers fail every season.
The reality is that players fail at every position every year.
Closers fail, but their failures aren't so dramatic that their ROI is
significantly worse than at other positions. My recommendation is the same as
it ever was. Don't dump saves...rather set prices. Set a price in your auction for closers based on
solid valuation principles. If you get one or two closers, fine. If you don't
get a closer because people are overpaying, that's OK too.... you should clean
up in the other categories if people are overpaying.
This is the principle at the heart of this game we all love. The right prices are the ones that get you the best players and that win you your league. Closers might be a terrible investment...or a great one. It all depends on your league, not on any preconceived notions of how good or bad a position is.
1 comment:
Mike,
Let it be known that for many years I've spent very little on 1B because I find HR and RBI to be overpriced in the market and I have mistakenly failed to fill out my outfield because I don't pay for big outfielders unless they steal. So, intuitively, perhaps, I shy away from all of the underperforming positions (compared to price) in the AL.
With regard to 1B, people pay for the top first basemen as if they were Frank Thomas. These guys aren't hitting .335 to go with 40 HR and 130 RBI. Well, maybe Cabrera is, but not Teixeira and the others. Yet, they generally go low to mid-30s and earn consistently low to high $20s. Guaranteed losses are not something I'm interested in.
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