Friday, June 29, 2012

Quick Hits: Patrick Corbin and Jordan Lyles

When it comes to pitchers, the present can be just as important as the future. Below is a quick write-up of two arms one of my readers inquired about earlier this week.

Patrick Corbin
Corbin got knocked around somewhat in a five-start trial earlier this season, so some are writing him off as a viable option going forward. But he's very young (22) and while Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are the more highly regarded Diamondbacks prospects, Corbin is a solid prospect in his own right and could be a mid-rotation arm at some point in the future. For now, it appears that Corbin will occupy the long relief role previously held by Josh Collmenter. This makes Corbin a marginal add even in N.L.-only and worth tracking only in keeper formats.

Jordan Lyles
Is Jordan Lyles a match-up play? On the surface, the answer would seem to be yes. He has an 8.20 ERA against the White Sox, Rangers (twice) and Rockies and a 2.48 ERA against the rest of the league. The tale of the tape, though, tells me otherwise.

vs White Sox, Rangers, and Rockies at Colorado: 4 GS, 18 2/3 IP, 30 H, 10 BB, 10 K, 17 ER, 2 HR, 8.20 ERA, 4.49 FIP

vs everyone else: 5 GS, 32 1/3 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 20 K, 5 HR, 9 ER, 2.48 ERA, 4.80 FIP

Fifty-two innings is a small sample size...and when you break it down like this, its questionable value becomes even more marginal. However, it looks like Lyles has been quite unfortunate against some of the league's stronger line-ups and quite fortunate against everyone else. The K/9 and BB/9 are better against weaker opponents...but not so much so that I'd be enthused about playing match-ups with Lyles. I'd only start him in a league where I already was in a big hole and couldn't afford to be risk averse.

1 comment:

zucchiniboy said...

Thanks Mike.

Another question for you related to position optimization - I have three shortstops (Furcal, Castro, and Drew), meaning one will occupy the Utility spot after I activate Drew. Would it make more sense for me to try to trade one of them for a more "productive" position like 1B or OF, or does the position scarcity argument not apply if you think the players are good? Getting myself a little confused thinking about it, and was wondering if you could help sort it out.

Or, narrowed down: should I try to trade one of these three for a 1B or OF?