Monday, May 14, 2012

N.L. FAAB Log: May 14, 2012

Jon Rauch $15. Other bids: $15, $10, $4.
You can always tell when news breaks on a Sunday which owners are paying attention and which owners are wolfing down the Mother's Day candy with their wives. After Frank Francisco's latest blow-up, the implication seems to be that the job isn't his anymore, and that Terry Collins will at the very least go by committee. That makes Rauch the obvious favorite for saves come next week. Buried beneath Rauch's decent ERA is a putrid K/9 rate and a BABIP that's unsustainable. Rauch might get better, but he's still a weak option for saves if he does claim the job. That does mean you shouldn't bid, though. Saves are saves.

Christian Friedrich $15. Other bids $14, $13, $10, $6.
Friedrich's impressive Major League debut comes with the obligatory "but he did it at Petco" asterisk. Otherwise, it's hard not to be impressed. Friedrich was starting to look like a failed prospect in 2010-2011, but a recovery from a sore elbow and a recommitment to conditioning (it was reported that he lost 30 pounds over the winter) made him look like a different pitcher at Colorado Springs, leading to his promotion. I'm not sure Friedrich will keep it up, but he's a solid two-start option this week at the Giants and versus the Mariners. In N.L.-only, you have to grab him now or you won't get him.

Reed Johnson $15. Other bid $1.
Despite the slow start, Johnson is a decent enough fourth outfielder and worth owning in N.L. formats for the modest HR/SB contributions. That being said, $15 is way too much. Tony Campana is getting most of the AB for now and it's hard to see Johnson pushing into a starting role. If you want Johnson, $2-3 should suffice.

Lyle Overbay $12. Other bids $9, $2.
Paul Goldschmidt's slow start has led to somewhat more playing time for Overbay than expected. The top two bids are likely gambling on a Goldschmidt demotion, but Goldschmidt has a 844 OPS over the last two weeks and looks like he's about to break out of his season-long slump. Overbay's fine as a third CO in deep leagues but I wouldn't bid hoping for a starter.

Alex White $11.
After a strong debut at Petco, White was beat up today by the Dodgers. This game was at Dodger Stadium, so White's stinker doesn't inspire confidence going forward. White reportedly had issues with both command and control, and will have to improve both if he's going to stick. He has a relatively easy start at home against the Mariners late this coming week, but I'd hold off on adding White.

Brad Lincoln $7. Other bid $0
If Erik Bedard can't go this week, Lincoln is a two-start starter with outings at Miami and at Detroit. He has some great numbers out of the pen this year as a middle/long relief option but has never shown consistency as a starter throughout his career. Even with the favorable venues, Lincoln is a risky play this week.

Jeff Suppan $6
Petco or no, Suppan's a poor bet to survive the season with a sub-3 K/9 and a fastball that has trouble getting past 86 MPH. Suppan does get a nice assignment at home against the reeling Angels, so I suppose if you're going to stream him this isn't a bad week to do so. But I don't recommend it.

James Darnell $6
A little old for a prospect, Darnell's bat has played well at nearly every minor league level; the only problem has been finding his glove a position. The Padres called Darnell up with the idea of using him in a super utility role. Darnell can hit, so monitor to see if San Diego trades a hitter to open up a slot for Darnell later in the year. Monitor for now, but Darnell could wind up making some significant contributions down the stretch if the Pads clean house. In OBP leagues, Darnell is even more valuable.

Adrian Cardenas $3
I doubt Cardenas will supplant Darwin Barney at second base for the Cubbies, but then I thought the same thing last year about Barney when he showed up in town and eventually stole the job away from Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt. Cardenas' luster as a prospect has dulled in the years since the Phillies shipped him to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal. Like Darnell, Cardenas has a good bat but the issue is finding a place where the glove isn't a liability. Cardenas is a much more likely utility type if he sticks this year.

Lucas Harrell $3
Harrell has predictably struggled after a strong start out of the gate for the Astros. He's probably a match-up play right now at best, though you can certainly leave him in the free agent pool and not lose any sleep over it. He gets the Phillies on the road this week.

Edwin Maysonet $2
Maysonet saw a little action this weekend while Rickie Weeks was nursing an injured hand, but should return to the bench next week assuming Weeks is healthy. He has very limited value even in N.L.-only. He hit a HR this weekend but power is not Maysonet's game.

Mike Nickeas $1
Nickeas is that in-season N.L.-only free agent rarity: an everyday catcher. With Josh Thole out indefinitely due to concussion symptoms, Nickeas should get most of the at bats behind the dish for the Mets. He has no track record of minor league success as a hitter and isn't a prospect, so don't be disappointed if he kills your average and does nothing else.

Craig Stammen $1
Stammen is a solid middle relief option for the Nationals and for N.L.-only. He's been putting up solid rates while striking out about a batter an inning. He should be owned in all deep formats but has almost no chance at saves.

Mike Costanzo $1
A long time ago, Costanzo had a big power season in the Phillies system and garnered a lot of attention among Roto players. However, he was never considered much of a prospect because of some holes in his swing and Costanzo was never able to duplicate that one big season or cut down on the whiffs. He might have a small window of opportunity with Scott Rolen out if Todd Frazier struggles, but right now Costanzo is a back-up corner only. The pop makes him mildly intriguing, but you can probably ignore him for now.

John McDonald $0
With the rash of Diamondbacks injuries, McDonald has been getting a handful of starts as of late, but still probably isn't worth owning. He doesn't run enough to be a speed play, has very limited power, and will hurt your average if he does play too much. He's in the Majors for his defense...or at this point for his defensive reputation.

Sandy Leon $0
Leon got the call when Wilson Ramos hit the DL. Jesus Flores should get the bulk of the playing time behind the dish though, making Leon a guy you can ignore even in N.L.-only. Leon is young, but doesn't have the profile of a sneaky power back up.


Slippy said...

No bids on Scott Van Slyke? He'll likely ride the pine in LA, but his AAA numbers this year have been outstanding (even though he's put them up in the PCL).

Mike Gianella said...

Farm player. Toz and I try to write these guys up in the Gearing Up pieces but we must have whiffed on Van Slyke this week. I bid $2 on him in Tout Wars but didn't get him.