Thursday, May 10, 2012

In Season Free Agents: Pitching Edition


Last time I looked at the best hitting free agents from last season. But what about the pitchers?

Top 10 A.L. Free Agent Pitchers 2011

Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
2010
1
$17





$3
2
$17





$3
3
$16





$0
4
$14
0
14
1


$4
5
$14





$4
6
$14





-$1
7
$14





$2
8
$14





$2
9
$13





-$1
10
$11





$9

Average
$14
0
14
0


$3

The list starts out with Harrison and a bunch of relievers...but then the starting pitchers rally. Not surprisingly, most of the starters here are of the low K variety. Rotisserie owners will almost always chase strikeouts above all else.

Unlike with the hitters, I'm a little less surprised that some of these pitchers didn't get purchased. Robertson - a high strikeout pitcher on a perennial winner - is the biggest surprise. Many of these pitchers emerged as the season went along so it's understandable that no one took a $1 stab on almost all of these arms.

Notice that there aren't any prospects here. Moscoso was the closest thing, but he wasn't anywhere near the top of the A's minor league list.

Top 10 N.L. Free Agent Pitchers 2011

Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
2010
1
$19
0
18

1

$1
2
$17






3
$16
1
15
1

1
-$9
4
$15






5
$14





$3
6
$13





$1
7
$12
0
11

1

$9
8
$11





-$1
9
$11





$5
10
$11







Average
$14
0
14
0
0
0
$1

The National League had the same 5/5 split between starters and relievers. Once again, some similar trends emerge. The starters aren't high K guys, the relievers are mostly middle relief arms and not closers (though Salas and Guerra did close at some point), and there aren'tany top prospects here.

Unlike with the hitters, it's more difficult to come to any definitive conclusions about either one of these lists. I don't know what kind of advice would lead me or any other analyst to help you find the 2012 versions of Ryan Vogelsong or Josh Collmenter, but it's probably not very sound advice. I'll say what I say all year round, though: don't forget the middle relievers, particularly in deep leagues. Eric O'Flaherty earned that $11 in 44 innings last year. The drip, drip, drip might not seem worth your time; the earnings and the evidence say that the drip most definitely is.

1 comment:

zucchiniboy said...

Good thoughts Mike. Regarding middle relievers - isn't it always a little tricky to find the right guy to drip, drip, drip your way to earnings? i.e., With around 10 innings (out of maybe 40-60 on the year) under their belts, guys like Salas, Bastardo and O'Flaherty this year are having rough starts, and others like Boggs, Burnett, and Ondrucek are having fantastic starts (but weren't phenomenal last year). By nature of having limited innings to examine, it's hard to know which guys will turn it around and which won't.