The Ailing Veterans, or, When Do I Cut Bait?

Inevitably, the end of April finds the typical fantasy baseball owner looking at his roster saying "Wow, he had a miserable April.  Is he done?  Should I cut bait?"  As we discuss on the blog time and time again, small sample sizes are the death of most fantasy owners...reactionary moves to a hot or slow start can mean giving up too early on a productive player or staying married to a player longer than his performance warrants.

This dilemma is especially true in the context of older players.  Below, I list three aging veterans who are off to miserable starts and look at their April 2012 versus April 2011, plus prior years if relevant.  This is a pre-cursor to a more in-depth examination of slow-starting veterans and their ultimate year's performance.  Perhaps today's examination can give us some insight on whether to sit tight and ride out the slump or cut bait and find a replacement.

Scott Rolen

	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVE	BB	K
2012	60	5	1	6	1	.183	4	14
2011	56	10	2	12	0	.232	1	9

Rolen did not play a full season in 2011, so it is hard to extrapolate his stats out for the year.  He finished the year with only 5 home runs and only hitting .242, so perhaps his slow start was an indication of things to come.  He did hit .271 and .263 in May and June, though without any power.

Right now, Rolen is pounding the ball into the ground, generating a 1.69 GB/FB ratio.  On the other hand, his 20.5% LD rate does not support his poor .227 BABIP.  Looking at his FB%, his IFFH% and the spike in strikeouts, there is no question Rolen’s bat has slowed. 

Is Rolen finished?  I think not…he can hit enough to be serviceable, though without the same power as in the past.  As evidence, Rolen went out and hit a home run last night.  His defense should keep him on the field one more season, though he is currently sporting a -1.4 in Fangraphs fielding WAR.  If I owned Rolen, I would be concerned, but I do not think it is time to cut bait.  Yet.

Orlando Hudson

	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVE	BB	K
2012	60	3	1	6	0	.200	2	14
2011	84	8	0	5	9	.238	15	24

           

Like Rolen, Hudson went out and hit a home run last night.  The first two things that jump out about Hudson this year versus last year are stolen bases and walks.  Walks can be fixed; Hudson just does not appear to be seeing the ball well.  Speed, however, disappears from year to year.  Perhaps the injuries and age are catching up to Hudson?  Could be…a speed decline at this age is not unexpected.  Of course, Hudson has only attempted one steal, which is more disconcerting to his owners.

What can we take away from Hudson’s start?  Well, the 28% LD is probably not sustainable.  A 2.00 GB/FB ratio will not work if Hudson has lost a step – that sounds like a lot of ground-outs to me.  On the other hand, the .256 BABIP and .200 average, in light of that 28% LD rate are incompatible and suggest average improvement.  As we know, more times on base equal more opportunities to steal bases.  Hudson is not traditionally a slow starter, and I think these past two Aprils are obvious indications of decline.  The time to cut bait, however, is not now…Hudson did finish 2011 with a .242 average, but with 19 stolen bases and 54 runs on a pretty bad team.

Randy Wolf

	IP	K	BB	ERA	FIP	xFIP
2012	21.1	13	9	7.17	5.67	5.21
2011	37.2	33	10	2.39	3.87	3.78

Randy Wolf is a player who sets off alarm bells with a bad start.  While his ERA and WHIP have been acceptable for the past few years, and his durability has been excellent, the K/9 has been dropping steadily.  This is the worst start to his career since 2007, when he was injured and missed the second half of the season.  The positives to take away from his numbers are that the LOB%, BABIP, LD% and GB/FB (the highest GB/FB of his career in a small sample size) appear incompatible with one another.  On the other hand, since he is striking out fewer batters and walking more batters, each extra ball in play is subject to a potentially higher penalty, and Wolf has gotten the worst of it so far.

I think it is a little early to tell you to cut bait with Randy Wolf in an NL-only league.  You need to monitor his next couple of starts, however, as a guy like Wolf could hurt you quickly.  It is also unlikely he comes out of the rotation any time soon, as Narveson is already down for the season and Marcum is coming off of his spring training shoulder issues.