Thursday, March 15, 2012

Determining If You Should Dump a Category (Freeze Leagues)


I haven't fielded this question in a while, but NSH wonders whether or not he should adopt a strategy based upon very specific factors pertaining to his league.

I can't answer any of NSH's specific questions without more information. As a general guideline, though, the most important factor driving the decision to compete in 10 categories or throw one or two categories overboard should be the strength of your freeze list in comparison to all of the other freeze lists in your league.

SCENARIO 1
Team
Salary
Value
$ to Spend
Auction
Value
Total $
Team 1
$125
$196
$135
$111
$307
Team 2
$113
$172
$147
$121
$293
Team 3
$143
$196
$117
$96
$292
Team 4
$112
$145
$148
$122
$267
Team 5
$117
$146
$143
$118
$264
Team 6
$74
$105
$186
$153
$258
Team 7
$126
$144
$134
$110
$254
Team 8
$100
$115
$160
$132
$247
Team 9
$85
$102
$175
$144
$246
Team 10
$155
$147
$105
$86
$233
Team 11
$83
$85
$177
$145
$230
Team 12
$68
$72
$192
$158
$230
Totals
$1,301
$1,625
$1,819
$1,496
$3,121


Here is a scenario from a 12-team league where the inflation is 21.6%. The Salary/Value columns list the actual salaries tied into freezes and the value I have "projected" for these freezes. The money to spend is what each team has left and the "auction value" is what each team would get for their trouble assuming that each team was impacted equally by the 21.6% inflation.

In a league like this, if you're one of the top three teams, you definitely don't want to dump a category. Even if you're one of the teams in the middle, you might or might not want to dump a category. Yes, $40 is a lot of ground to make up during the auction. However, if your valuation is good, you might make up $15-20 of value during the auction. This is also a very rough calculation; depending on how your value is distributed, you might be closer to first in terms of categorical differentials, and dumping a category might not be a good idea.

SCENARIO 2

Team
Salary
Value
$ to Spend
Auction Value
Total $
Team 1
$128
$256
$132
$100
$356
Team 2
$187
$227
$73
$56
$283
Team 3
$73
$135
$187
$142
$277
Team 4
$88
$146
$172
$131
$277
Team 5
$59
$121
$201
$153
$274
Team 6
$92
$125
$168
$128
$253
Team 7
$104
$127
$156
$119
$246
Team 8
$82
$109
$178
$136
$245
Team 9
$129
$138
$131
$100
$238
Team 10
$122
$130
$138
$105
$235
Team 11
$154
$139
$106
$81
$220
Team 12
$155
$137
$105
$80
$217
Totals
$1,373
$1,790
$1,747
$1,331
$3,121

The inflation in this league is higher (31.3%), and that's because Team 1 is fielding a juggernaut. In a league like this, I would encourage just about every owner in the league to at least consider tossing a category or two overboard. Yes, a lot can go wrong in any given auction, but $356 of projected value after inflation would make it hard for almost any team to blow it barring a disaster...or a brilliant auction by a competitor. It's certainly not impossible (I've seen it happen), but if you're this far in the hole and you don't have a well-stocked armory of dump chips, you had better have a plan in mind.

Once you've figured out how good your team is from a valuation standpoint, then you can decide whether you should dump categories or not. But this is the first step. Deciding on whether or not this is a good idea without figuring this out is nothing more than a guessing game.

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