So, have you recovered from Hanley Ramirez kicking your teeth in last year yet? Oh, shortstops, for as thick as the position can be, put a dent in fantasy teams last year. As you can see from the chart below, the ten most expensive shortstops last year lost, on average, $5. CBS took a bigger hit, losing $6. Ramirez, Drew and Furcal lost double-digits, and Tejada came really close at -$9:
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Shortstops, 2011
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | $16 | 44 | -28 | 49 | 41 | 42 | 41 | $33 | |
2 | $32 | 40 | -8 | 48 | 35 | 37 | 36 | $31 | |
3 | $36 | 30 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 | $25 | |
4 | $27 | 24 | 3 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 21 | $12 | |
5 | $9 | 24 | -14 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 20 | $20 | |
6 | $30 | 19 | 10 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 16 | $15 | |
7 | $18 | 18 | 0 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 15 | $18 | |
8 | $8 | 18 | -10 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 18 | $21 | |
9 | $5 | 14 | -9 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 13 | $16 | |
10 | $14 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 11 | $12 | |
Average | $20 | 24 | -5 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 22 | $20 |
The interesting question, of course, is how did CBS react? Well, if you include Bonifacio as a shortstop (and that is where he played the most games last year), the shortstops still took a $2 shave. Drew and Ramirez took $13 paycuts (and that was before it was announced Drew would not be ready for Opening Day) and Tulowitzki earned a $9 shave. Even Desmond (who took a $1 loss against his CBS price) and Rollins (who made a $4 profit) took salary cuts. Hell hath no fury like a fantasy owner scorned.
Top of the Line
Troy Tulowitzki $39, Hanley Ramirez $36
Tulowitzki is now 27 years old and coming off of two very good seasons. He looks primed for a monster year, and that monster year comes with all five categories. There is little much to say after that…buy bug. Ramirez is intriguing…CBS believes in a bounce back as much as I do. What is interesting, however, is not injury, or decline, or bounce-back. It is this question: why is Hanley Ramirez swinging less? Over the course of 2010 and 2011, his swing percentage has dropped from 47.6% to 41.3%. In the zone or out of the zone does not seem to matter – they both dropped. The overall contact rate dropped as well, though most of the decline is in out-of-zone contact percentage (which is likely a good thing). This probably ties into something Buster Olney said recently about Hanley Ramirez’ swing – it looks shorter and quicker this year. That, my friends, may be the key to the bounce-back. Third base eligibility after the start of the season will not hurt either.
Speed and Power, Second Tier Style
Simple proposition for fantasy baseball managers: if Reyes is on the field, this price is a bargain. The days of 50+ steals are likely gone, but Reyes seems to be making a concerted effort to make more contact and put the ball in play, using his still plus speed to turn ground-balls into hits, and singles into doubles. Reyes might have trouble scoring runs in this lineup, but that should not scare you too far away. It is a lot to ask a young hitter to repeat an incredible rookie campaign. $29 is asking him to do exactly that. There are a lot of things to like here: decent bat control, high ground-ball rate with speed, and a well-above average line-drive rate. This price, however, likely takes away any upside value. Bonifacio went to $26 as part of a three team bidding war. Why? I am not sure, even looking back at when Bonifacio came up at the auction. There are things to like (the close to 21% K/9 is not one of them), particularly the speed…on the other hand, we pay these kinds of prices for Michael Bourn, so maybe I am wrong. Gordon is another guy from whom we may expect too much. This price works if he steals 50-60…he has no power at all, but does smack the ball around pretty good all over the field. Rollins is probably a little under-priced here. He bounced back nicely last year. His prime is behind him, but the 15 home run power and 25-30 steal capability put him in a position to earn this salary and more.
Who’s Next
Who’s Next
We should get Drew out of the way now…he is still out, will not start the season with the club, and is generally disappointing. The hope is he is back in mid-May and not the All-Star break, and he is the player from 2008-2010. To be honest, I am still surprised Cozart is starting for the Reds…Dusty is tough on the young ones. A quick look at Cozart’s OPS numbers in the minor leagues give me some cause for concern, but he did get over .800 in AAA and in some limited at-bats last year. Desmond is Desmond – he earned $19 and he earned $17, and he will very likely earn the same this year. The interiors do not suggest any type of “breakout,” but steady production should be expected. Scutaro is under-rated everywhere he goes, and he is likely under-rated here again. Scutaro has earned in the middle and high-teen’s for the last 4 years, and the move to the NL and move to Colorado makes him even more valuable. This is a good bargain.
The Rest
This is one ugly group of players. We know Barlett’s game: if he plays, he runs and if he runs, he earns. 2009 is an aberration, but his double-digit earnings year in and year out are not a fluke…ugly still pays the bills. Furcal is getting older, and he fell off a cliff last year. He is no Roberto Alomar, but his career could certainly end the same way. He did enough in 300+ at-bats to earn $7-$8, so you hope for the same this year. Barmes is moving to a park that kills right-handed power. He stopped running. He stopped hitting for average. Unless you play in a defensive metrics league, well, you are going to be unhappy. Gonzalez starts and Gonzalez earns. The slugging dropped and the K/W spiked, so be careful…but, he should out-earn the $3. The best thing I can say about Crawford is…well, I am sure he is a nice guy. Well, and he apparently beat out Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot for a job.
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