$8-9
Nolan Reimold $9, Grady Sizemore $8, Eric Thames $8, Vernon Wells $8
Reimold is mostly upside at this price. If everything came together, I suppose he could put together a season in the high teens, but he's never put a full quality season together before, will contend with Endy Chavez for AB, and might wind up on the bad side of a platoon. This bid's OK, but I'm higher on Reimold than most. Sizemore can't even be lumped into the "he'll be a bargain if he's healthy" category. He earned a paltry $5 in 268 AB, which would make him a $10 player over the course of a full season. This auction was held before his latest setback; I'm not sure I'd push Sizemore past $3-4. Thames I like, but I'm wary that he's not going to be a true full-timer and that Rajai Davis and Travis Snider will steal AB from him. If Thames plays, he has 20-25 HR power even if the BA is low. I started diving into Wells' numbers to try and put a happy face on him, but my stomach started cramping. The issues with him are PT and batting average. A .250 batting average and plenty of playing time would make him plenty valuable at $8. If he doesn't perform, don't think the Angels won't find a way to make Wells disappear, $42 million dollars notwithstanding.
$6-7
Franklin Gutierrez $7, Mike Trout $7, Josh Reddick $6, Seth Smith $6
The Gutierrez price looked good at the time, but then he went out and got hurt again. I already had questions about Guti pre-injury, primarily whether or not the power would come back. Now I feel like he's a $5-6 flier at best for a rebuilding Roto squad. Trout will either look great at this price if he makes the team or (more likely) comes up in May or look bad if the Angels decide to leave him down most of the year. I suspect that he's going to force the issue sooner rather than later. Reddick is my kind of deep league player: a guy who is pretty pedestrian in real life but could provide sneaky value across the board. Assuming Reddick's the starter, I'm comfortable pushing him to low double digits. Smith should be on the good side of the platoon with fellow new acquisition Jonny Gomes. Like Reddick, Smith provides sneaky value, though I could see stopping at $8-9 due to the likely platoon.
$4-5
Rajai Davis $5, David Murphy $5, Travis Snider $5, Bobby Abreu $4, Raul Ibanez $4, Brent Lillibridge $4
Finally, we're at the point where almost all of the players will be bench guys. Murphy and Ibanez are the exceptions. I'm a big Murphy fan, yet every year he goes for way too little money despite being a consistent double-digit earner. He's not a guy you'd touch in mixed leagues, but A.L.-only owners should be pushing Murphy well past this. Ibanez could be an awesome play at Yankee Stadium. Keep in mind, though, that has bat has slowed down considerably and he's not lifting as many fly balls as he used to. I suspect Ibanez will be more of a part-time option for the Yankees and that several of the aging Yankees will rotate through DH to keep fresh. Snider could break camp with a job, but also could lose out to Thames. He's off to a good start this spring, so at the very least keep an eye on him. Abreu seems to be the odd man out in Anaheim. The Angels are saying they're going to try to get him 400 AB, but that's hard to envision. If Trout makes the team, Abreu's likely the guy who is gone. Lillibridge could wind up in a platoon with Alejandro De Aza. He's a nice power/speed combo off the bench, but $4 could be a little bit of a stretch.
THE LONG AND WINDING ENDGAME
Andy Dirks $3, Craig Gentry $3, Leonys Martin $3, Luke Scott $3, Ryan Sweeney $3, Hideki Matsui $2, Cody Ross $2, Julio Borbon $1, Endy Chavez $1, Sam Fuld $1, Jonny Gomes $1, Andruw Jones $1, Don Kelly $1, Magglio Ordonez $1, Trayvon Robinson $1, Casper Wells $1.
In CBS, a few starters or would-be starters possibly slip through here. MLB Depth Charts has Dirks listed as a starter, though there will probably be some combination of Raburn, Ramon Santiago, and Dirks splitting time at 2B/LF. If he does start, Dirks would be one of the weakest options out there. Scott is another solid option assuming PT...and the only guy I'd worry about in camp is Brandon Guyer down the line. Ross is probably the strongest play here at $2. Even when Crawford comes back he should get a significant amount of at bats, and there's a good chance he earns in low double-digits in 2012.
2 comments:
As always, love the posts. Reading AL second tier a ton this year, which brings me to my q. Very quirky year in one of my AL leagues. Dropped to 9 teams, and through twist of ugly history, the league plays with 8 pitchers not 9. 22 starting, 10 reserves. Almost jubilee year, two decent freeze teams, none with killer list. Am thinking that with 9 teams maybe play is as if mixed league and go big on offense (not only are Albert and Prince available but Tex, Longo (I am tossing him back at 39), Cruz, Pedroia. Only thing nagging at me is the idea that maybe the part of the room no one will be in is pitching. With this bare bones info, does this seem like a Sweeney/Beeney oppty? Hence my looking at second tier hitters.
What's a Beeney?
A few years ago, my league decided that we'd try to look more like the real AL teams. We increased the size of the pitching staff to 10 and cut an OF slot. The guys in your bottom tier are now reserves, the next players up are $1 to $3, and the stars at the top get paid more.
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