Thursday, February 09, 2012

Peter Bourjos or Adam Lind

A reader wanted to my analysis of a straight-up Peter Bourjos for Adam Lind trade (I'm not sure which side of the trade he's on). My take: I'd much rather have Bourjos...and it's not even close, despite the fact that Bourjos wasn't that much better than Lind in 2011.

Bourjos 2011: 12 HR, 43 RBI, 22 SB, 72 R, .271 BA, $19
Lind 2011: 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R, .251 BA, $16

However, it seems that the arrow on Bourjos is pointing up while the arrow is flat or slightly down on Lind.

While I doubt Bourjos will ever be a 30+ HR hitter, he smacked nine of his 12 HR Post All-Star. Split statistics should always be eyed warily, but Bourjos is at the point in his development curve where the power spike should be viewed as more than just a small sample size fluke. 15-20 HR this year is possible.

Mike Scioscia will also probably let Bourjos run a little more. If Bourjos runs even a little more, it puts him on the periphery of an elite Roto company. Five A.L. hitters hit 20+ HR last year and stole 25+ bases: Jacoby Ellsbury, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Curtis Granderson. No, Bourjos isn't going to develop into a Roto monster like some of those guys. But he could be a poor man's Upton, and a low to mid $20s earner.

By contrast, unless Lind reverts to his 2009 form, he's not going to earn much more than $20. He hasn't been able to hit lefties, and the lack of plate discipline means that Lind's batting average is never going to get much better. Is a 30 HR/100 RBI season possible? I suppose, but even if Lind had reached those milestones last year, he only would have been worth another $2. The batting average will have to shoot up to .280 to really make Lind more valuable, and with his profile that seems unlikely.

As a general rule, if you have to choose between two players, take the one that can contribute in every category. Bourjos has an opportunity to be a five-category player. It might never happen, but you know that he should be a power/speed threat. Lind isn't going to run and isn't likely to hit for average. There isn't enough of a positional difference to make Lind worthwhile in any format to make me choose him for 2012 over Bourjos.


USCMD said...

Hi Mike.......Trades don't occur in a vacuum, it would be interesting to find out what the back story is? Maybe the reader has Bourjos as his 4th or 5th of'r. And hes concerned about the guy he has at 1st. When you trade of'r for of'r the back story is moot.

I play in a league where you need to field a team based on this years stats. Its head to head, none of this using last years stats to qualify. So if your 1st base man gets hurt or gets moved to a different position, you need to find a replacement. To get a Lind, you have to give up something of value.

Its curious that Bourjos is about 18th on the OF productivity list (bat alone) and Lind about 8th at 1b, yet they both figure to get right at 250 total bases. Both players figure to get some playing time challanges. In L.A. if Trumbo and Morales are healthy, Abreu, Wells, Hunter and don't count out Mike Trout. In Tor the names are less well known, the likes of Rasmus, Cooper, Thames and Encarnacion along with Bautista and Snider.

I hope the reader gives us a bit more info. My draft is a month away, and I can go through my cheat sheets just so many times.

USCMD said...

Mike lets take the hypothetical a few steps farther. The guy with Bourjos, also has Swisher, Francoer, Rios and Seth Smith. He has Morneau at 1b, but between concussions and talk Mauer will get ab's hes concerned that he might end up taking errors, for not having a 1b. So losing Bourjos could hurt, but adding Lind, to Morneau as insurance is worth the subtle drop in stats when you compare Lind and Bourjos in a vacuum.

Sooner or later Mike Trout ends up the best OF'r the angels have.

Lastly, the league used handedness. If your opponent starts a lefty you only can use player stats vs leftys. Todays if hes facing a lefty in real life, if not a random set is drawn. Morneau vs leftys was woeful last yr, 144 avg/.211 slugging. While Lind was .252/.380.

More data, can make trades easier to understand.