A reader wanted to my analysis of a straight-up Peter Bourjos for Adam Lind trade (I'm not sure which side of the trade he's on). My take: I'd much rather have Bourjos...and it's not even close, despite the fact that Bourjos wasn't that much better than Lind in 2011.
Bourjos 2011: 12 HR, 43 RBI, 22 SB, 72 R, .271 BA, $19
Lind 2011: 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R, .251 BA, $16
However, it seems that the arrow on Bourjos is pointing up while the arrow is flat or slightly down on Lind.
While I doubt Bourjos will ever be a 30+ HR hitter, he smacked nine of his 12 HR Post All-Star. Split statistics should always be eyed warily, but Bourjos is at the point in his development curve where the power spike should be viewed as more than just a small sample size fluke. 15-20 HR this year is possible.
Mike Scioscia will also probably let Bourjos run a little more. If Bourjos runs even a little more, it puts him on the periphery of an elite Roto company. Five A.L. hitters hit 20+ HR last year and stole 25+ bases: Jacoby Ellsbury, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Curtis Granderson. No, Bourjos isn't going to develop into a Roto monster like some of those guys. But he could be a poor man's Upton, and a low to mid $20s earner.
By contrast, unless Lind reverts to his 2009 form, he's not going to earn much more than $20. He hasn't been able to hit lefties, and the lack of plate discipline means that Lind's batting average is never going to get much better. Is a 30 HR/100 RBI season possible? I suppose, but even if Lind had reached those milestones last year, he only would have been worth another $2. The batting average will have to shoot up to .280 to really make Lind more valuable, and with his profile that seems unlikely.
As a general rule, if you have to choose between two players, take the one that can contribute in every category. Bourjos has an opportunity to be a five-category player. It might never happen, but you know that he should be a power/speed threat. Lind isn't going to run and isn't likely to hit for average. There isn't enough of a positional difference to make Lind worthwhile in any format to make me choose him for 2012 over Bourjos.