Thursday, February 23, 2012

Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Moustakas

Since the impact of Ryan Braun's successful appeal is fairly obvious from a Rotisserie standpoint, I'll take a look tonight at two players entering their first full seasons: Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Moustakas

On the surface, Moustakas looks like a weaker bet for 2012, even if he is a better long-term play. His 5/30/2/26/.263 line over 338 at bats was worth only $6 in A.L.-only last year. However, Moustakas is only 23 years old, and picked up the pace after a poor June and July. The average came in August and then the power came in September. Moustakas put up a blistering 960 OPS in September. Yes, beware small sample sizes, but Moustakas has a history of struggling initially at a new level before picking up the pace. I can't guarantee that September is a definitive sign of things to come, but I'd expect more than a 10/50/.260 season this year from Moustakas.

Goldschmidt seems like the polar opposite of Moustakas. A glance at his numbers (8/26/4/28/.250 in 177 AB) screams buy. However, Goldschmidt doesn't quite have the prospect pedigree that Moustakas has. The nearly 30% K/AB rate is a concern, and while in this day and age many hitters survive in the bigs with high whiff totals, it does tend to push the batting averages down. If Goldschmidt hits .250 that's OK, but I could see some .220-.230 seasons in his future. It's not enough to prorate Goldschmidt's 2011 numbers and predict 25-30 HR and $20 earnings. There's some downside to Goldschmidt, and while I still think he'll be fine, some of the more optimistic 30-35 HR projections need to be taken with a grain of salt.

If I had to choose between them this year I'd take Goldschmidt. Long term, I definitely like Moustakas; he has a better chance of being an elite option at his position in 2-3 years than Goldschmidt does at his.

1 comment:

USCMD said...

A 2012 version of Spahn/Sain pray for rain.

Two starters in 3.35 to 3.70 range. Haren/Holland. Then Humber ~4.00.

Then the crying begins. 3 guys in the 4.5 to 4.9 range.

The offense is every bit as good as the starters are bad. Question is, can they gain ground, to the extent the starters lose it. You have some depth, which might allow for trades. Mauer is not Mr. Durability. So if he gets hurt again, you get Congers numbers, not a pretty thought.

3 of the top 6 outfielders, pretty amazing. Maybe dealing one of them, for a starting pitcher and a lesser outfielder. I tend to hit the draft thinking offense, then spend the rest of the season, making up for it, upgrading my pitching, through trades and fa acquisitions.