In 186 at bats last year in 5x5, Brent Lillibridge's 13 HR, 29 RBI, 10 SB, 38 R, .258 BA were worth $11. Despite this, he won't be on anyone's sleeper lists this spring.
Here's why he should be:
1) He has a shot at regular playing time
Lillibridge's only competition in left field is Alejandro De Aza. The White Sox don't have anyone on the farm that is all that close to making the team. Lillibridge probably won't beat out de Aza for the job, but a platoon is not out of the realm of possibility. de Aza is clearly stronger against righties and Lillibridge is clearly stronger against lefties. Yes, the sample sizes are painfully small. However, a path for 200-250 AB for Lillibridge is somewhat evident.
2) Even if Lillibridge's batting average tanks, he still has power/speed
A .220 batting average for Lillibridge would sting - particularly if he does get 250 AB. And that's Lillibridge's career average, so you'd be right to anticipate some regression this year if he gets more playing time.
But throughout his career, Lillibridge has stolen bases. Even if the home runs drop somewhat, he's not going to revert to zero. Prorating his career performances to 250 ABs, Lillibridge would put up a 9 HR, 31 RBI, 13 SB, 41 R, .220 batting average. That's not as good as last year, but that still would have been good for a $9 season.
Don't bid for a $9 season. But don't simply put $1 next to Lillibridge's name either. If he's sitting out there for $2-3, you might want to jump in with both feet.
1 comment:
LILLIBRIDGE GETS SHORT CHANGED MUCH THE WAY NAPOLI DID, WHEN PLAYING SPORADICALLY....(sorry about the caps), or in leagues that use average but not slugging percentage. A closer look adn vs Leftys he hit .287 and slugged .585 in 94 ab's. Vs rightys he hit .228 and slugged .424 over 92 ab's.
So in short, he makes a great back up, selection, especially in the head to head leagues I play in. Pick him up for reserve money, and he just may break out and put up full time numbers. In fact if you go back to 2009 and 2010, and look at Napolis splits you'll find virtually identical numbers, i.e., slugging vs leftys about 150 points higher.
I think hes a stud that just needs a chance to get 500 abs, then we'll know. My only hope is he doesn't have a monster spring, which will drive his price up dramatically.
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