2012 Kyle Farnsworth (and the power of perception)

Is Kyle Farnsworth for real? Or will 2011 prove to be a fluke?

Those are the stock Roto questions being asked about Farnsworth heading into 2012, but they're the wrong questions based on Farnsworth's past performance.

Season	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2007	7.2	4.05	1.35	0.283	70.70%	30.30%	4.8	5.04	5.1	-0.1
2008	9.1	3.28	2.24	0.34	84.70%	35.10%	4.48	5.49	3.98	-0.5
2009	10.13	3.38	0.72	0.37	66.90%	45.80%	4.58	3.1	3.32	0.7
2010	8.49	2.64	0.56	0.285	73.20%	41.30%	3.34	3.06	3.49	1
2011	7.96	1.87	0.78	0.25	84.90%	50.60%	2.18	3.16	3.21	0.9

Since 2009, Farnsworth has been a good-to-very-good reliever. Last year's ERA overstates his performance but 2009's ERA understates it. His improvement has to do with the addition of a cutter to his arsenal (or maybe not), but regardless of what you want to call it, Farnsworth has morphed from a severe fly ball pitcher into a moderate ground ball pitcher and that makes a significant difference. The 2.18 ERA is probably not sustainable, but the 3.34 he put up in 2010 is a realistic expectation.

Perception often trumps reality with closers, though. There isn't a position on the diamond where narrative rules over facts more than it does for the closer. The narrative with Farnsworth (from some) is that "he's a choker who got lucky when he was put into the 9th inning last year." The reality is that Farnsworth made a tangible improvement to his repertoire and is a better pitcher for doing so. If Farnsworth's "tender elbow" that bothered him last year isn't an issue, he should be a fine second-tier closing option again in 2012.

The broader point here is that it's always more important to go past perception or conventional wisdom and look at what's really happening with a player. If you let a healthy Farnsworth slip too low in your auction this year because of shaky perceptions, you're giving your opponent an opening, and that's a surefire way to lose your league.