Sunday, November 13, 2011

A.L. Home League Recap Part III: Results


Last time out I looked at my strategy in-season after what turned out to be an excellent auction. How did I actually do?

2011 Billy Almon Brown Graduate "Draft" vs. Final Standings
Team

HR
RBI
SB
BA
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
TOT

Gianella Quints

12 (+6.5)
9 (+3)
4 (-3)
9 (-1)
12 (+3)
5 (-1)
12 (0)
12 (0)
75 (+7.5)

Glanvillage People

11 (+4)
11 (+3)
8 (-2)
8 (+3)
5 (-2)
10 (-1)
9 (-1)
11 (0)
73 (+4)

Kirby's Jihad

9 (-1)
8 (-4)
11 (+2)
11 (-1)
6 (+4)
12 (0)
5 (+1)
4 (-6)
66 (-5)

Philly D Batteries

7 (-5)
12 (+1)
10 (+2)
12 (+5)
3 (-1.5)
11 (+7.5)
7 (+2)
3 (0)
65 (+11)

JSC's

8 (-3)
10 (0)
9 (+3)
6 (+3)
8 (+3.5)
9 (-1)
6 (-1)
6 (+1)
62 (+5.5)

Whit Fielders

6 (+2)
3 (+1)
3 (-1)
4 (0)
10 (-2)
8 (0)
10 (+1)
8 (+1)
52 (+2)

100% Fun

10 (+8)
7 (+6)
7 (+6)
10 (+1)
11 (+1)
1 (-1)
3 (-3)
1 (-1)
50 (+17)

The Benedictines

4 (+3)
6 (+1)
12 (0)
7 (-4)
1 (-2)
7 (-2)
8 (0)
5 (-3)
50 (-7)

Dewey Decimators

3 (-2.5)
5 (-2)
2 (-3)
5 (+4)
9 (+1)
4 (-3)
4 (+1)
9 (+3)
42.5 (-1.5)

Guerrero's Gueros

2 (-1)
2 (-1)
5 (+2)
2 (0)
2 (-4)
3 (-0.5)
11 (0)
10 (+1)
41.5 (-3.5)

Ivry Towers

5 (-4)
4 (-5)
6 (-5)
3 (-5)
4 (+3)
6 (+1)
2 (+1)
2 (+1)
32 (-13)

Good Fellas

1 (-7)
1 (-3)
1 (-1)
1 (-5)
7 (-4)
2 (+1)
1 (-1)
7 (+3)
21 (-17)


I didn't ace it, but I did what I needed to do to win in the end.

Once again, here were the three points of my in-season strategy.

1) Dump Steals and/or Saves
In the end, all of the trades I made here were mostly a wash in saves and a loss in stolen bases. The primary thrust behind trading Juan Pierre and Brett Gardner was to try and move up in saves and other categories at the expense of steals. Then, when I moved Joakim Soria for Elvis Andrus, I zigged in the other direction. Finally, when I traded Andrus, the idea was that I had enough points in steals and saves where I wasn't dumping either category entirely and still picking up 8-10 points in the two combined. This worked, but the margin for error (particularly in saves) was too close for comfort. If Kyle Farnsworth hadn't come back from his injury at the end of the season, I would have cost myself two more points, and finished tied for 1st instead of 1st outright.

2) Try to Dump my Cheap Pitchers
Trading Josh Beckett for Justin Verlander and Paul Konerko was an obvious winner. Konerko alone gave me a big boost in power, while upgrading from Beckett to Verlander gave me a good deal of flexibility to make other moves down the stretch. Perhaps I could have been more aggressive in flipping C.J. Wilson at our league's trade deadline in early August for even a marginal offensive boost. Four more RBI would have picked me up another point. Fifteen more would have grabbed me two more points - and one point over the eventual second place team. I finished so far ahead in ERA/WHIP that losing Wilson only would have cost in wins. In the end, though, that was the deal breaker. Since I couldn't get a starter back for my cheap salaried ($6) Wilson, get back the offense I needed and stay under our league's $350 salary cap, I hung back.

3) Play keep away with the good starting pitchers
Did this work? Sort of. As I noted in my last post, I kept CC Sabathia from getting traded to any other contender in early June. I then flipped him in late July to another contender. The offense I got back made this deal worth it; fortunately for me, CC was pretty pedestrian the last two months of the regular season.

Where this didn't work was that the team that finished second wound up pushing up to second in WHIP and fourth in ERA at year's end. His already strong rotation was boosted by Doug Fister's insanely great performance down the stretch. Only a David Price clunker on the last day of the regular season prevented him from doing even better.

The other side of this coin is that I didn't trade one of my ace starting pitchers to this contender and give him the wins points that could have picked him up another two points. Sabathia would have hurt the second place team's WHIP, but Dan Haren's excellent August/September WHIP would have left his team fine while giving him those wins that would have not only resulted in a tie but a loss (I lose wins points without Haren; without any guarantee of making them up in an A.L.-only). While this game of keep away was far from a science, I definitely did the right thing by holding tight to my excess of pitching until the last second.

So there it is. I now have five titles in a 14-year span in my home league. This was the lowest point total I've ever won with, but in terms of strategy, tactics, and trading, this might be the best job I've ever done to bring home a title.

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