Thursday, October 13, 2011

Rookie of the Year Follow Up - Alexi Ogando and Eric Hosmer

Eugene points out that I may have made a mistake in my A.L. rookie write-up on Tuesday.
This is the first time I've seen Alexi Ogando listed as a rookie. He didn't have the IP to loose his rookie quals last year, but he may have hit the service time minimum. Not sure.
Eugene is correct.

Major League Baseball's rookie eligibility rule reads as follows:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
The Rangers called up Ogando on June 12, 2010. He did not spend any time on the disabled list in 2010. He's well past the 45-day limit.

At this point, I'm not changing my vote. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has already posted the results of the voting and what is done is done.

Why did I assume Ogando was a rookie? I used Fangraphs filter and Ogando showed up as a rookie.

Eugene also wants to know why Hosmer didn't show up in the Top 10 in WAR for either Fangraphs or Baseball Reference.
And, where's Hosmer on that chart? Did his dWAR drag him down that much?
Hosmer had a -7.0 UZR, making him the second worst 1B among MLB qualifiers. Baseball Reference gave Hosmer a positive 2.3 WAR on offense and a negative 1.0 on defense. So, yes, Hosmer's defense knocked him down quite a bit.

Even taking Hosmer's defense out of the equation, though, Hosmer's offensive production - while steady - certainly wasn't spectacular.

Baseball Reference WAR and OPS+: 2011 Rookie Hitters
Hitter
PAs
oWAR
OPS+
Dustin Ackley
376
2.5
117
Eric Hosmer
563
2.3
118
Jemile Weeks
437
2.3
109
Desmond Jennings
287
2.1
128
Brett Lawrie
171
1.9
152
Mark Trumbo
573
1.8
113
Eric Thames
394
1.2
104
Mike Carp
313
1.0
122
Josh Reddick
278
0.9
109
Casper Wells
241
0.8
109

Hosmer’s bad defensive metrics didn’t weigh as heavily with me as his somewhat ordinary numbers did. Yes, Hosmer had a solid year. Yes, his extreme youth is a positive when trying to analyze where Hosmer is headed. Mark Trumbo doing what he did at Age 25 pales in comparison to Hosmer doing what he did at Age 21.

That being said, the Rookie of the Year Award doesn’t have a built-in age curve. Hosmer didn’t crack my top three because he didn’t stand out compared to Ogando, Ivan Nova or Michael Pineda. None of the hitters did, which is why I didn’t include any of them on my ballot.

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