Thursday, August 25, 2011

The Trouble with Steals


It never fails. Every March I read multiple tirades from fantasy baseball writers along these lines.
Paying for saves is awful. There's no stability in closers, and if your top tier closer goes down your season is in the toilet. Don't pay for a closer. You're a lousy fantasy player and a poor excuse for a human being if you do.
I'm not a fan of paying for saves either. However, there's another Rotisserie category that is at least as problematic that doesn't face nearly the same wrath that saves do.
Top 10 Players SB 2010
Player
SB '11
SB '10
Diff.
$ '11
$ '10
Sal

21
68
-47
$21
$33
$24

47
52
-5
$36
$26
$21

Raj Davis
34
50
-16
$17
$27
$21

17
47
-30
$17
$40
$40

37
47
-10
$26
$27
$22

11
42
-33
$1
$19
$18

32
42
-10
$23
$31
$26

26
42
-16
$21
$25
$29

27
37
-10
$23
$30
$20

0
35
-35

$25
$3


Michael Bourn is the only player here who is likely to improve on his 2010 stolen base total. Gardner, Suzuki and Pagan are going to come close, Upton might come somewhat close, and everyone else is going to miss the mark entirely.

It looks like one of the reasons that owners don't bitch as much about steals as they do about saves is because the bargains are already built in. Pagan is on pace to earn $7 less than in 2010 but is also on pace to turn a profit. Pierre, Davis and Suzuki are all only going to take $3-4 losses. The market hates paying for these guys so they don't.

But it's one thing to take a small loss in auction dollars. The challenge here rests more around the fact that you're not playing for profits but for steals. Juan Pierre might only be losing his owners a few dollars this year when all is said and done, but when you bought Pierre you weren't hoping to break even on your investment. You were hoping for 50 steals.

Players like Ben Revere and Sam Fuld provide even less incentive to pay for steals. There are only 30 Major League closers all season long. Only so many set-up men can become closers. But anyone can run. If Jaocby Ellsbury steals 50 bases this doesn't mean that Crawford has to stop at 20. If you spend big money on a closer and you miss good luck finding a replacement. With steals, those replacements are floating around all year long. Don't pay big bucks for a speed guy. You could get burned, and you're more likely to get a free agent stolen base king than you are to land a 30 save closer via free agency.

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