Sunday, August 21, 2011

Dillon Gee v. Mike Minor

zucchiniboy said...

Hey Mike,

Could use your thoughts here: I can keep only one of Dillon Gee and Mike Minor. Wins, ERA, and WHIP are really tight in my NL league - who would you go with rest of the way? With Hanson's status up in the air, not sure whether Minor will stay in the rotation or not.

Gee came into the season ranked as a “C” prospect by John Sickels.  So far this year, in 124 innings, he is posting a 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with a 82/51 K/BB.  Frankly, he has anchored the Mets’ staff in many ways, racking up 11 wins and eating innings to protect a depleted bullpen.

The concern with rookie pitchers is “the wall.”  Gee has thrown 437 innings in the minors, and never more than 161 (2010).  His ERA has climbed steadily over his last 10 starts, creeping closer and closer to his 4.47 FIP.  He gets the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals (x2), Cubs, St. Louis and Cincinnati assuming the schedule holds up, which is not terrible.

Minor, as opposed to Gee, came into the season as a “B+” prospect and the third-best prospect in the Braves’ system.  Minor, however, has put up his solid numbers at AAA, whereas Gee has put the numbers up on the major league level.  Minor, in his limited innings for Atlanta, just was too wild to be effective, both in and out of the strike zone.  While Minor sports a nifty 2.31 FIP and 3.44 xFIP (compared to his 4.26 ERA), the 30% LD% and .372 BABIP scream out “red flag.”

Note that Minor has thrown as many innings as Gee this year, with less innings under his belt in his minor league career.  Minor will also be in the middle of a playoff race (well, I am not sure we can really call it a “race”) and may not spend the remainder of the season in the rotation.  Tommy Hanson is due back at the end of the month, so Minor should get at least two more starts, if not three; these are favorable match-ups against the Cubs, Mets and Dodgers.

All things considered, this is a tougher call than you might think at first blush.  Minor can be dominating at times, but has been ineffective due to a lack of command.  Gee has been relatively steady, but he is on a team that is out of the race and has seen his ERA and WHIP rise pretty steadily over the past six weeks.  If I had to take the flier, I would go with Minor and worry about his rotation spot later.  The strikeouts, the overall team quality and the match-ups seem to favor him over the next 10 days at least.  If you pick Gee, however, I think you will be okay.

1 comment:

zucchiniboy said...

Thanks Toz. Activated Minor, dropped Gee. Too bad I couldn't drop him before his shelling to the Phils.