So...you're one of the lucky duckies who bought J.J. Hardy at your auction this past spring. How ya feeling right about now?
Pretty good, I'm guessing. Perhaps even a little smug.
Entering Sunday's action, Hardy had put up an impressive 25/63/0/60/.274 line. There's a good chance he is going to finish with 30 home runs. This is pretty impressive for a guy who hit 17 HR combined in 2009-2010 across 742 at bats.
While it would be difficult to argue that Hardy has had a successful Rotisserie season, another question worth asking is: was Hardy a good Rotisserie buy?
Top Ten A.L. Shortstops YTD 2011
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | Tout | 2010 |
1 | $29 | $13 | +15 | $13 | $12 | $15 | $9 | |
2 | $24 | $22 | +2 | $27 | $20 | $19 | $19 | |
3 | $24 | $12 | +12 | $6 | $15 | $15 | $13 | |
4 | $22 | $22 | -1 | $23 | $23 | $21 | $22 | |
5 | J.J. Hardy | $21 | $17 | +4 | $15 | $18 | $18 | $8 |
6 | $20 | $12 | +8 | $9 | $14 | $14 | $14 | |
7 | $18 | $11 | +7 | $7 | $13 | $15 | $9 | |
8 | $18 | $22 | -4 | $23 | $23 | $22 | $23 | |
9 | $15 | $3 | ||||||
10 | $14 | $12 | +1 | $12 | $12 | $13 | $17 | |
Average | $20 | $14 | +6 | $14 | $15 | $15 | $14 |
In terms of whether or not the market turned a profit on him, yes. Hardy is on pace to turn a $4 profit. From this standpoint, Hardy is obviously a success.
However, he's only the fifth most profitable SS on this list (not including Nunez, who none of the expert leagues purchased at auction). Even in raw earnings, while Hardy is solid, he's still "only" fifth at SS overall.
This isn't a knock on Hardy. He's having a strong comeback year and looks like he's finally returned to his pre-2009 form. However, even though it worked out, the $17 average salary still looks to me like it was a bad idea.
Check out the 2010 column. Only Nunez earned less than Hardy in 2010. Giving an $8 raise to a player coming off of one bad season is questionable. Giving that raise to a player coming off of two bad seasons typically doesn't end well.
Results aside, almost every other play here looks better from a strategic standpoint. Cabrera, Andrus and Escobar are the only other players to get raises here, but I like these raises better. Cabrera and Andrus fit into the up-and-coming category while Escobar was a full year removed from a bad situation with the Braves.
Hardy has been a successful play for his owners. But I don't like taking such significant risks, and you shouldn't either. When there are this many players with double-digit earning potential, let someone else swing for the fences.
1 comment:
Thanks for yet another thoughtful post. Appreciated even by this smug Hardy owner.
I'm very curious about the tool you're using to calculate in season $ values. Is there anything you can point me to? I'd previously used the Rototimes calculator before they disappeared and have been desperately hunting for a replacement all year.
Post a Comment