Monday, July 25, 2011

A.L. FAAB Log: July 25, 2011

Duane Below $10. Other bid $1.
Below isn't really much of a prospect; he's up with the Tigers because Phil Coke didn't work out and they don't want to go back to Charlie Furbush at the moment. Below had TJ surgery in 2009. He came back from the surgery with better command but his velocity still isn't anything to write home about. Below could carve out a career as a 5th starter type, but he might also just be one of those guys who is a placeholder waiting for better prospects to supplant him. Below is a projected two-start pitcher this week (at the White Sox and against the Angels), but keep in mind that a trade could push him out of the rotation and/or back to the minors.

With both Luke Scott and Vladimir Guerrero on the shelf, Bell is up to give the Orioles some depth but might also DH or move Mark Reynolds to DH to give Reynolds a quasi-rest. Bell was viewed as a top prospect a couple of years ago, but has regressed somewhat and probably is going to need a few breaks to get a clean shot at a job. Reynolds could get traded this week, and if he does Bell would likely start at 3B for the Orioles for the next two months. At the moment, Bell profiles like a poor man's Reynolds: 15-25 HR power with a very poor batting average. Don't let the gaudy HR numbers from 2010-11 fool you. Bell hasn't had a premier minor league season since he was in the Dodgers system in 2009.

Navarro looks like he's with the Red Sox primarily to provide infield depth. His power potential make some believe he's more intriguing than your typical good field, no-hit middle infield prospect, but the bat has been erratic in the minors. Navarro has also had trouble staying on the field. He broke a hamate bone in 2009 and has missed time this year due to a strained back. Navarro should have a future as a utility player at least, but is probably going to need a sustained hot streak at some point to break through as a regular.

Laird was having a down year at AAA, but Ramiro Pena's injury didn't leave the Yankees with much of a choice but to call on Laird. Laird is generally dismissed as a prospect, though at Age 23 he isn't old by any means and has definitely shown some power flashes (he had a strong campaign last year at AA). He's in the wrong organization to break through as a regular, though, and will probably need a trade to catch a break. Right now, he looks like depth for the Yankees until Eric Chavez comes back or until the Yanks manufacture a trade.

McDonald and Dickerson weren't bought on their merits, but because the Roto team that bought them: 1) needed to fill positions after a series of trades, 2) needed to stay under the league's $350 salary cap and 3) has decided to dump power in season and attempt a Sweeney Plan. Less is more in this case, so the hope here is that McDonald and Dickerson don't play and muck up the batting average. This is a fine play for this owner, but in any other scenario there's no real reason to own these guys.

Chirinos probably would garner little if any attention if he wasn't a catcher, and a converted infielder at that. At 27, he doesn't qualify as a prospect, but the position switch gives the argument that he deserves a pass a slight amount of credibility. Chirinos has a small window to prove himself in Tampa, and John Jaso isn't Mike Piazza. Chirinos' upside is 15 HR, but I'm expecting something like 8-12 if he does make it as a regular. He reminds me of Jaso with somewhat more power.

Here is another strategic bid, this time to fill in a middle infield position to complete a dump deal for the team on the non-contending side of things. Davis is picking up a little playing time at second base lately, but is not fantasy-worthy unless he's playing every day...and even then it's questionable.

In the good old days, Chen's 2.90 ERA in his last five starts since coming off of the DL would have led to a multitude of bids (that is, if he were even there for the taking at this point). Now, most of us know better. Chen's xFIP over that time is 4.08. Even his 1.387 WHIP tells us that Chen has been luckier than good, and the low K/IP rate is another reason to avoid Chen. Even if you're feeling lucky, Chen is at Boston this week. Talk yourself off of the ledge and get back inside.

Mike McCoy. Claimed by 12th, 6th, and 3rd (tie) place teams.
See McDonald, Dickerson, and Davis above. The sixth and third place teams were trying to fill holes or execute their strategy. I'm not sure what the last place team was doing chiming in here...unless they see an opportunity to flip McCoy next week because of his positional flexibility and all of the roster machinations that come with the upcoming trade deadline.

Tommy Hunter. Claimed by 10th and 3rd (tie) place teams.


zucchiniboy said...

Hey guys,

Wondering your thoughts on Jason Hammel. Had a good April, then things started falling apart. K/9 is down, BB/9 is up...he's the last starter on my squad for a buck. Thanks.

AllenM said...

I don't claim to be an expert, but I had Hammel at a buck as well, and I finally cut bait on him over the weekend.