Saturday, June 25, 2011

Kelly Johnson or Dan Uggla

A few weeks ago, Mike answered a question from Richard about Dan Uggla and Jonny Gomes.

Yesterday, Steve asked:

[Should I] give up the rest of my keepers to get either Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson from a team that is dumping? (Note: I did edit this question slightly, as it was attached to another question that is the subject of another post to follow).

Back at the beginning of June, Mike G. thought Uggla would be a better acquisition than Jonny Gomes.  Mike correctly predicted that Gomes would not only continue to be a poor hitter, but would continue to lose time to players like Chris Heisey (though, in my opinion, he has not lost enough time to Heisey).  On the flip side, Gomes is hitting .369 with 2 home runs and 8 runs batted in for the month of June. 

Uggla, for his part, has been worse than awful in June: a .173 average over 80 plate appearances with 3 home runs, 7 runs batted in and 20 strikeouts.  His BABIP (.191) suggests there is room for improvement.  The 14% line-drive percentage, however, means that the BABIP is not without foundation.

How about Kelly Johnson?  Well, Johnson is not hitting the ball well either, carrying a .212 average into the weekend’s action.  He has, however, hit 12 home runs and knocked in 31 runs, while stealing 8 bases.  His BABIP is also .266 with a 16.4 LD%, demonstrating that, while Johnson is not the hitter he was last year, there is still room for improvement here.

At this point, Uggla is slipping into "lost season" territory, while there are signs of hope for Johnson.  My recommendation: if you need to make a move, get Johnson, not Uggla.

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