Thursday, June 02, 2011

Jonny Gomes vs. Dan Uggla

Richard wants my advice on two players off to slow starts: Jonny Gomes and Dan Uggla.
I possibly have shots at two useful waiver players, Uggla and Jonny Gomes, at $24 and $10, respectively. Similar type players, no? I guess the nice thing about Uggla is the best is yet to come, one hopes. At Gomes’ price he also represents a better trade chip. Thanks a lot for your thoughts.
Both Gomes and Uggla are off to terrible starts:

Gomes: 141 AB, 27 H, 23 R, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, .191 BA
Uggla: 212 AB, 37 H, 20 R, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .175 BA

Uggla's start is worse because: 1) all of those extra at bats are doing much greater damage to team batting averages and 2) at bat for at bat, he simply hasn't been productive.

Here's how ZIPS sees them both the rest of the way:

Gomes: 272 AB, 66 H, 40 R, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 5 SB, .243 BA
Uggla: 368 AB, 89 H, 53 R, 18 HR, 51 RBI, 2 SB, .242 BA

ZIPS sees it slightly in favor of Uggla over Gomes. I'd put Uggla ahead of Gomes by more than just a bit for two important reasons:

Position: Uggla's middle infield eligibility makes him a slightly more valuable commodity at 2B than Gomes is in the outfield.

Playing time: Unless Uggla is masking an injury; the Braves are going to keep sending him at there. They locked him up this winter through 2015 and he isn't going to sit. Gomes, on the other hand, has already started losing playing time to both Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis. The next round of interleague play will help Gomes' cause, but there is no guarantee that the job sharing won't continue throughout the season.

As far as their prices go, both are probably inflation keeps at best at this point. Uggla might actually be a better keep because of position weakness and his status as a starter. Gomes is only worth keeping at this price if he definitely is starting someone in 2012. At the rate he's going, that isn't something I'd bank on at this point.

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