Sunday, June 05, 2011

A.L.-Only Trade Advice

Dizzy Troy asks:
advice please on deep season A.L. league deal: Kevin Youkilis and Darren Oliver for Michael Brantley and Alexi Ogando?
I like the deal for the owner getting Brantley and Ogando better. Whether or not I would make that trade, however, depends on how much risk I can afford on the pitching side.

I'm fairly convinced now that Brantley is for real. If he is, you should expect another 15-20 steals the rest of the way, a batting average that matches Youkilis', and plenty of runs. If you need the speed/runs and can afford to give up the HR/RBI, the trade makes sense.

Oliver is a fungible reliever. He might gobble up a few more saves if Neftali Feliz struggles, but this isn't necessarily guaranteed either. Even in deep A.L.-only, you can find a replacement for Oliver quite easily.

The key to this trade is Ogando. We all know or suspect that he's due to regress. The question is: where is the floor?

I featured Ogando in a post late last month highlighting how lucky he's been with his ERA versus his xFIP. Since then, his ERA has jumped up to 2.20 while his xFIP has actually stayed pretty consistent.

If Ogando can put up a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way, this trade is a clear winner for the Brantley/Ogando side. Texas should put up enough runs for Ogando to give him enough wins to make him worth it. If, on the other hand, Ogando puts up a 4.2 or so, you might not feel as confident making this trade.

My take on Ogando is that he has pitched well enough that I'd take the risk. All of this comes back to how I opened this post.

If your team is middle of the pack and you need to take chances, take the chance on this trade. If your team is strong, Youkilis is the by far the most proven player in this deal. You might want to hold out for something more established in return.

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