Saturday, May 28, 2011

Too late for saves?

Regular reader zucchiniboy wants to know if it's time to stop trying to get saves:
When is it time to stop chasing saves? I'm in an N.L.-only 12-team, second to last in saves while playing the closer merry-go-round game in St. Louis and LA. I've had Franklin, Boggs, Padilla, and Guerrier, none of which have yielded much so far. With a third of a season gone, is it time to stop chasing relievers in the hopes that they become closer and start focusing specifically on the best pitchers available to go for other stats like wins and strikeouts?
Let's start by taking a look at two leagues: my N.L. home league and Tout Wars and see what the saves spread is in these leagues.

N.L. Home League: 29, 28, 27, 26, 23, 15, 15, 14, 11, 10, 7, 5, 1
N.L. Tout Wars: 35, 31, 28, 27, 24, 15, 14, 11, 11, 10, 7, 1, 0

As you can see, a lot depends on how many saves you currently have and where you are in the standings. If you're the team in my home league with 10 saves, adding a full-time closer could quickly gain you four points. If you're one of the teams in my home league or the team in Tout Wars with 15 saves, you might or might not gain a point depending on what happens to the teams above you in the standings.

Let's say you could add a pitcher to your team right now on a 40-save pace for the rest of the season. This would give you 27 or 28 saves the rest of the way to add to your total. Does that help you?

In my home league, the team with five saves doesn't have a real closer. He got four saves from Sean Burnett and one from Mike Adams. So let's say that he gets a closer, picks up 28 saves, and finishes with 33. How do those teams up there stack up?

15 saves: Ryan Madson, Eduardo Sanchez
15 saves: Carlos Marmol
14 saves: Brian Wilson
11 saves: No closer (Brandon Lyon on reserve)
10 saves: Drew Storen
7 saves: No closer (Jonathan Broxton on reserve)

If the five save team got a closer, he'd pass the seven and 11 save teams by default. He might pass the 10 save team if Storen only put up a 30 save pace the rest of the way.

In Tout Wars, the next-to-last place team has one save. Adding a 40-save pace closer would leave this owner with 29 saves. Would this help at all?

15 saves: Francisco Cordero (Lyon reserve)
14 saves: Huston Street
11 saves: Marmol
11 saves: Heath Bell
10 saves: Mark Melancon
7 saves: None (Broxton reserve).

The only point this team would definitely get would be by passing Broxton's owner. Maybe he'd pass Melancon's owner, but maybe not.

The answer to zucchiniboy's question is that it's OK to try to get those extra 2-3 points but that you shouldn't go crazy trying to do so. A trade is OK as long as you're paying 50 cents on the dollar or maybe less. You can spend a couple of FAAB bucks and hope to get lucky, but don't go crazy...spending $30 of your FAAB to maybe gain a point or two is probably a waste. Unless you're in a 4x4 league, you're going to get more value out of even a mid-tier starter then you are out of an above average middle reliever.

3 comments:

NSH said...

Does Z have sB to trade for saves? One play (mine) was to deal Boujos and SB potential at 14 for C. Perez at 13 (one fewer contract year) but seems to me SB are easier to find in a deep league than SB.

zucchiniboy said...

Mike, thanks for the post. I'm the only team without a real closer right now (even the team behind me does now), so it looks like I don't have much ground to gain in 2/3 of a season.

@NSH - I don't have SB to trade either... :(

Toz said...

NSH - if you got Bourjos for Chris Perez, that is a pretty darned good trade for you.