Wednesday, May 11, 2011

OBP versus BA


One of my Twitter followers asks:
how would u rank these 1B in an OBP league? Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Pena, Freddy Freeman
I don't do formulas for OBP versus BA. So I had to backtrack and figure this out.

I started with the A.L. To say the least, I was surprised by the results.

Most favorable A.L. earnings differential 2010: OBP vs. BA
(auctioned hitters only)
#
Player
PA
BA
OBP
$wBA
$wOBP
+/-
1
686
.273
.393
$16
$24
8
2
683
.260
.378
$34
$41
7
3
Carlos Pena
582
.196
.325
$12
$19
7
4
712
.256
.365
$25
$31
6
5
655
.238
.346
$18
$23
5
6
425
.272
.395
$13
$18
5
7
340
.283
.412
$16
$21
5
8
569
.277
.383
$27
$32
5
9
646
.300
.401
$30
$35
5
10
606
.270
.370
$24
$28
4

At most, I thought that the dollar value on the best OBP hitters would change by $2-3. But I was dead wrong. There's some serious movement on some of these guys. No wonder you OBP guys didn't think Teixeira was a bust. And, hey, that's why you were bragging to me about your great $9 purchase of Cust.

What kind of impact does a lack of walks have in these types of leagues?

Least favorable A.L. earnings differential 2010: OBP vs. BA
(auctioned hitters only)
#
Player
PA
BA
OBP
$wBA
$wOBP
+/-
1
626
.282
.313
$23
$17
-5
2
588
.259
.288
$15
$10
-5
3
658
.279
.313
$20
$15
-5
4
622
.239
.270
$8
$3
-5
5
646
.302
.331
$21
$16
-5
6
613
.298
.333
$26
$21
-5
7
503
.270
.300
$11
$7
-4
8
601

.265
.302
$13
$9
-4
9
Raj Davis
561
.284
.320
$27
$23
-4
10
586
.247
.283
$12
$8
-4

The impact on the negative side isn't quite as bad, but it definitely stings. With a couple of exceptions, these guys go from being slight earners on the batting average side to slight/moderate losers on the OBP side. Betancourt was someone you could win ugly with in BA leagues. In OBP leagues he was simply ugly.

So back to the question. How do these hitters rank?

Here's how ZIPS's rest of the season update sees it.

1) Carlos Pena $20.11
2) Justin Smoak $17.62
3) Freddy Freeman $17.58
4) Eric Hosmer $12.11

Having Hosmer that far behind the rest of this group seems a little harsh, but all we need to do is look at how highly regarded Smoak was in 2010 and what he actually did. Pena's $20 season assumes that he's going to finish with 26 home runs. While I wouldn't rule this out entirely, ZIPS sees him duplicating 2009. I think a repeat of 2010 is more likely. Smoak is the guy I like to outdo his projection, even in that terrible home park of his. He's starting to hit off-speed pitches, and if he can continue to build on this, look out.

My ranking:

1) Smoak
2) Freeman
3) Pena
4) Hosmer

2 comments:

Rotoman said...

Using OBP rather than BA is a totally different game. I think that's a good thing, because it's more reflective of the value of the skills of the players we play. If there's one improvement you can make to Roto, change the BA category to OBP.

Mike Gianella said...

Agreed.