More on the "Value Slope"

Blair and I have been going back and forth on the idea of where to grab value in an auction over the course of a few posts/comments now. I made the point that while the cost of players early in an auction is slightly higher than their perceived value than the cost/perceived value later on, you shouldn't get wrapped up so much in cost but more on getting the bargains as they fall in. Blair did not agree.

For my leagues (including the NFBC NL-Only league last year), I tend to hedge a little bit against the inflation in the early rounds, and then adjust as the in-auction inflation moves around. I'll only bit up to 80-85% on >$25 players, then depending on money spent that way, bid up to 90% on $15-$25. I've never had a problem spending like this, and it tends to evenly match your history "margins" of each tier of players, so I'm trying to hedge against the inherent risk of those salary levels.

It could just be the inflation, but my home league just doesn't play out this way.

Salary vs. Value

Billy Almon Brown Graduate 2005-2010

Year	# $26	$26+ AVG COST	$26+ AVG $	ROI	# $15-25	$15-25 AVG COST	$15-25 AVG $	ROI
2005	23	$32.48	$19.09	59%	35	$20.34	$11.49	56%
2006	17	$32.53	$19.82	61%	32	$19.75	$14.22	72%
2007	24	$34.88	$26.71	77%	26	$19.85	$13.23	67%
2008	24	$32.83	$27.71	84%	25	$19.72	$14.96	76%
2009	27	$32.70	$25.19	77%	25	$20.08	$15.40	77%
2010	20	$32.10	$24.00	75%	26	$20.50	$13.88	68%

Getting cute and waiting for the bargains isn't a winner in my league.

Everyone bracket in that chart looks like a loser because of inflation. But with the exception of 2006, the $15-25 players are clearer losers most every other year than the players who go for $26 or more.

And keep in mind that in the year it looks like a wash (2009), that you're better off with the $33 player earning $25 than the $20 player earning $15. Those extra $13 that you have to spend are going to get swept away by inflation; spending $13 more to get $10 extra worth of stats doesn't sound impressive but, trust me, it is.

To be sure, Blair is correct that there is risk in the $26+ group. The prices here are averages, and you could definitely wind up with a player here who gets hurt and misses most of the season. On the whole, though, you are better off with the more expensive players in an inflation auction. You obviously can't buy all of them, but you do want to get at least one.