Because of the sheer number of pitchers auctioned, I am going to make some general comments about some, but not all, of the pitchers on the list. If you have specific questions about particular pitchers, just drop me a tweet at @tozrotothink or e-mail me at tozrotothinktank@comcast.net.
The Top: Roy Halladay ($32), Tim Lincecum ($30)
No surprises here. Halladay has earned in the $30s or better for what seems like a decade, and he is still underpaid. Note that in LABR, he went for $30, a $2 discount over this low CBS price. He will be in the mid-$30s in your league. Lincecum struggled last year; I’m bearish on him this year and I will tell you why. Lincecum struggled with arm slot; there is no other explanation for the struggles month by month, the increased walk rate and the lack of command. Arm slot struggles usually (not always) equate to arm injuries. Tread carefully; LABR did by only giving him $27.
The Runners Up: Cliff Lee ($29), Adam Wainwright ($27), Zach Greinke ($26), Cole Hamels ($25), Josh Johnson ($25), Clayton Kershaw ($25), Mat Latos ($25), Yovani Gallardo ($21), Matt Cain ($20), Tommy Hanson ($20), Ubaldo Jimenez ($20)
Welcome back to the National League Cliff Lee – this is right at the top end of my range for him. Wainwright, well, you can knock him down a few pegs now. Query: what is your price in a keeper league? Since he will not be fully recovered (18 months) until July or August of 2012, I think the price has to be in the lower single digits. Knock Greinke down a couple of pegs as well. Rib injuries tend to linger, and, frankly, Greinke’s average earnings over the last four years make this bid a bit dicey for me. Johnson needs to stay healthy. Kershaw looks primed to take the next step. Latos looked phenomenal, but this is well above my bid price. Note the Hanson price – I really like that price. Hanson only earned $17 last year, but I see him continuing his breakout. Also note the Jimenez price – there are a lot of non-believers out there, and Jimenez went for $19 in LABR. He did earn $26 last year.
For comparison, here are some LABR prices: Hanson $24; Lee $23; Hamels $21; Johnson $20; Latos $22; Kershaw $25; Gallardo $21.
The Teens: Chris Carpenter ($19), Roy Oswalt ($16), Chad Billingsley ($15), Ted Lilly ($15), Daniel Hudson ($14), Shaun Marcum ($14), Matt Garza ($13), Hiroka Kuroda ($13), Wandy Rodriguez ($13), Madison Bumgarner ($11), Tim Hudson ($11), Jonathan Sanchez ($11), Johnny Cueto ($10), Brett Myers ($10)
Overall, this tier of pitchers brings some small bargains, with a couple of exceptions. Oswalt earned $27 last year. While there are a lot of non-believers in a repeat, $16 is a significant discount from those earnings and I have to believe this will be a good profit center. Marcum certainly has a lot of people excited, moving into the NL Central. I don’t buy in to the $20+ bids for Marcum I’ve seen in some auctions, but it strikes me that he should be a profit center at this price. Tim Hudson certainly should not repeat the numbers he put up last year, but $11 is almost giving your opponent a leg up over you in the auction.
The Pre-End Game: Ian Kennedy ($9), Ricky Nolasco ($9), Anibal Sanchez ($9), Edinson Volquez ($9), Jhoulys Chacin ($8), Jaime Garcia ($8), Bronson Arroyo ($7), Ryan Dempster ($7), Travis Wood ($7), Jordan Zimmermann ($6), Jonathon Niese ($6), Javier Vazquez ($6)
Volquez went for $18 in LABR. This is quite a price, considering he still is not in the United States. I would start to get concerned if I were a Volquez owner…wait, I am. I love this Chacin price, as it perfectly balances the risk/reward. I do not think any of us will get him at that price in our home leagues. Dempster got a little too steep of a discount here. Zimmerman is a wildcard – I would not pay $6 for him at this stage. Vazquez – good luck J
The “5s”: Jake Westbrook ($5), R.A. Dickey ($5), Clayton Richard ($5), J.A. Happ ($5), Mike Minor ($5)
The Best of the Rest: Jair Jurrjens ($4), Chris Narveson ($4), Carlos Zambrano ($4), Derek Lowe ($4), Bud Norris ($4), Tim Stauffer ($4), Jorge DeLaRosa ($4), Johan Santana ($4), James McDonald ($4), , Randy Wells ($3), Mike Pelfrey ($3), Jon Garland ($2), Jason Hammel ($2), Homer Bailey ($2), Joe Blanton ($2), Joe Saunders ($2), Randy Wolf ($2)
There are a lot of Jurrjens non-believers. I believe. The Santana gamble is one all of us must consider at some point in the auction. I find it hard to believe he will not earn at least $4 if he is back in July or August. I wanted to tell you that Garland was a nice price at $2; he earned $14 last year. You do not want to pay expecting those earnings, but $2 almost guarantees a profit.
The “Ones”: Jordon Lyles, Julio Teheran, Jarrod Parker, Kevin Correia, Barry Enright, Cory Luebke, Vicente Padilla, Chris Volstad, Mike Leake, Chris Young, Tom Gorzelanny, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Kyle Lohse
Lyles, Teheran and Parker are the “Whoa, I hit the jackpot” picks should they be up for any extended period of time (though I’m not really sold on Parker). The rest of this group is really looking for lightning in a bottle.
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