NSH wonders if it's possible to use valuation to gain a slight advantage in Roto.
It is fascinating (at least to me, an old masochist) to compare denominators presumably not league specific with those in any given league (such as our AL 5x5). Horseshoe close (that is, similar ranges) but enough different to make me wonder if it reveals some play I could leverage in my league. That is, will the differences reveal a spot or two where my league is behind the curve and I might be able to exploit before they catch up?
At this point, I doubt that any league is all that far behind the curve. But even if you're in a rare league where the values are slightly different due to the difference in your auction population, it really won't have much of an impact.
I've talked before about how the CBS expert league buys less stats than the expert leagues that auction later. This happens primarily because the CBS leagues have their auctions very early, and as a result wind up buying some players who never play a Major League inning. Here is how it shaped up in the American League in 2010.
CBS Auction Statistics: 1,851 HR, 7,775 RBI, 1,215 SB, 8,069 R, .265 BA
Tout Wars Auction Statistics: 1,897 HR, 7,989 RBI, 1,242 SB, 8,281 R, .265 BA
The differences between the two leagues do have some impact on value, but only slightly. Using league-specific formulas, Carl Crawford was worth $41 in CBS and $40 in Tout. A $1 difference isn't anything to alter your strategy over.
1 comment:
HSH, if you micro value players- divide their values by each of the five categories and then compare those players who are high in one particular category to see if there is a trend in your league for under/over valuing a particular category. For example if all of the players with 30+ SB, who also could have been predicted for 30+ SB, not the surprises, earned considerably more than they were paid, then steals were overvalued.
About 8 years ago I did that for my league and found BAvg to be undervalued and saves to be overvalued. Since then I've always tried to draft an entire team of players who bat over the league average (consistently so that they can be predicted to do so) and not draft a closer. For five years I finished first 3 times, 2nd, and 3rd. Since then I did draft a closer and finished in the bottom half (Putz the year he was hurt) and then no closer and finished bottom third twice more.
Maybe I should do that micro valuation analysis again to see if there is a softspot in the league using the past 3 drafts as data points. Oh, if I only had the time.
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