I generally don't spend much time speculating about "real" awards, but this year I thought I'd look at this from a Rotisserie perspective as well as from a real perspective.
Tonight I'll start with the National League Rookie of the Year.
Players are listed sorted by Patton $ (5x5). VORP is from Baseball Prospectus and WAR is from Fangraphs.
Top 10 2010 N.L. Rookies, Sorted by Patton $
Other Fangraphs Top 10: Jhoulys Chacin 5th, Stephen Strasburg 6th, Chris Johnson 8th.
A $5 gap between Heyward and Walker isn't much, but the VORP/WAR rankings pretty quickly differentiate the players who add significant value to the real game to those like Desmond, Axford, and Tabata who are more valuable in our game. The differences in the two non-Roto valuation systems are more intriguing than the similarities. I don't know why Hudson is 1st in VORP but not in the Top 10 in WAR, nor why Davis is fourth in WAR and not in the Top 10 in VORP.
Heyward, Posey and Garcia quickly jump out as the front runners for the award. Let's look at their numbers:
Heyward: 609 PA, 81 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 10 SB, 278 BA, 394 OPS, 457 SLG, OPS+ 131
Posey: 426 PA, 56 R, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 0 SB, 311 BA, 364 OPS, 504 SLG, OPS+ 129
Garcia: 13-8, 2.70 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 163 1/3 IP, 132 K, 64 BB, 9 HR, ERA+ 146
These are three pretty strong seasons to choose from. Sentiment right now seems to rest with Posey. However, for a player with 180 less plate appearances than Heyward, you would want a far more dominant line. Heyward noses out Posey in OPS+...and also in wOBA (376 to 371).
Comparing pitchers to hitters is obviously apples to oranges. But while I'm impressed with Garcia's ERA, his WHIP gives me pause. And Garcia's 3.42 FIP and 3.74 xFIP do indicate more than a little luck in his favor.
My vote would go Heyward, Posey, Garcia. In a close race, I give the edge to the player who played all year. Both Posey and Garcia didn't log a full season, and that gives Heyward the (slight) edge that makes him get my vote.