Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Quantity vs. Quality

Is it better to buy a balanced team or a team of stars and scrubs? On Saturday, I made my case that it doesn't matter as long as you get value. Gypsy Soul wondered if I wasn't contradicting something I said earlier.
in your previous post, which is what prompted my previous post, you said "if you can get a team that is going to get 6,500 to 7,000 AB you're going to win every time." Isn't it hard to get this many ABs if you go stars and scrubs? With 14 position players this works out to 480 ABs per player, isn't this a little difficult to get with the stars and scrubs approach?
Strictly speaking, this is correct. If you buy seven hitters who get 600 AB apiece, you would need to get 329 AB for your remaining seven hitters to reach 6,500 AB. While this isn't impossible, it is certainly a tall order.

Keep in mind, though, that once the season starts your team isn't going to stand still. If your scrubs aren't doing well, you're going to burn and churn. You won't get lucky at all of your non-star spots, but if you do get lucky once or twice and find an everyday player, you should add 250-350 AB to your team.

But you still might not get to that magical 6,500-7,000 AB level.

Depending on how you spend your money, though, that's OK. Let's look again at the hitters I bought in Tout Wars, this time with their earnings to date (through Sunday's games):

Roto Think Tank, N.L.-Only Tout Wars Squad

CRonny Paulino
CYorvit Torrealba$11$1+10$1309
1BAlbert Pujols$40$400$50$41593
2BRon Belliard$3$30$1$5194
SSHanley Ramirez$30$40-10$51$42598
3BMat Gamel$2-2$2$30
COJoey Votto$38$28+10$34$30555
MIJose Reyes$29$23+6$36$26609
OFCarlos Lee$15$24-9$28$26598
OFAlfonso Soriano$19$18+1$20$17504
OFEric Young Jr.$4$3+1$1$385
OFJosh Anderson$1-10
OFMike Stanton$12$1+11$1297
UTCristian Guzman$11$3+8$1$7418

This offense is going to fall well short of the 6,500 to 7,000 AB that I recommended.

But does it matter? Without looking at the stats, do you doubt that I will a) turn a profit on these hitters and b) was probably near the top of the league at the start of the season?

This, of course, is the key. You want a lot of AB, but Stars and Scrubs requires you to keep trying to upgrade your roster. Mike Stanton has been very profitable for me, but I didn't leave Stanton on my roster all year long waiting for that magic moment when he arrived. Mat Gamel and Josh Anderson didn't spend a moment on my team.

I include the prices of the other expert leagues because I wanted to present some context. The CBS prices were clearly too high. But even compared to LABR, Tout Wars was too conservative. So instead of worrying about accumulating the most AB at the auction, I pounced.

The point I was trying to make, Gypsy, is that you should take opportunity as it comes. Don't worry about accumulating enough stats at the'll do that once the season starts. Instead, buy the best team you can during the auction, regardless of whether that team is Stars and Scrubs or Balanced Roster.

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