Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Non-Contenders, Competitive Leagues

Gypsy Soul asks about something that has been on both Toz's mind and mine lately: non-contender behavior in carryover leagues.
a friend and myself were berating follow owners in a 5x5, AL only, keeper league for failing to pick up via a waiver claim both (Curtis) Granderson and Victor Martinez at $20 each, primarily for the benefits to be hopefully gained next year. I know without knowing the exact inflation for next year for our league makes this a more difficult question, but just wondered your gut feeling about this. I think we can safely assume the hitting inflation in this league will be at least 15-20%.
It's impossible to offer an entirely accurate analysis without knowing what the maximum number of freezes is and how good or bad all of the non-contenders' freeze lists are.

Entering the week, Granderson was on pace to earn $15 and V-Mart $17. There are certainly other factors than this year's earnings to consider, but neither one of them is a slam dunk as a keep based on this year's performance. If Gypsy's league only allows, say, 8-10 keeps, it's possible that a non-contender may have looked at Granderson and V-Mart's numbers and decided to pass.

Generally speaking, though, on the rare occasions I've been out of the running in keeper leagues, I like to be as aggressive as possible. In this case, I would have claimed Granderson and/or V-Mart because:
  • It is hard to gauge what someone's freeze price is going to be at the end of August, and it's not like Granderson/V-Mart's prices are that out of line with the market.
  • You never know what someone else might think of their value come next March.
  • Unless there is some kind of financial penalty for claiming them, what do I have to lose, particularly if I'm sucking wind with some $10 free agent who won't be a keeper next year or in a million years?
My advice to teams at the bottom is simple. Unless a player is in his option year, acquire, acquire, acquire. Don't muck up the pennant race by spending the $80 of your FAAB on Manny Ramirez just because it is burning a hole in your pocket, but do try to grab freezes via FAAB or waivers. Your goal is to win next year. A $20 Granderson might not work out next March, but what do you have to lose by taking him for a test drive in the last month of 2010?

1 comment:

Gypsy Soul said...

FYI, we can keep up to 15 freezes. There isnt a financial penalty and the non-contenders have maybe 3 or 4 good freezes among position players. The guy who got Granderson and Martinez will have a killer freeze list with Morrow at $1 and Cahill $4, not to mention, I am embarrassed to say, Jose Bautista at $3 and Zobrist at $1 in his option year of his contract so I guess he extends it to at least one year at a cost of $5 ie salary for the next two years will be $6. No sure how it factors into the equation but we dont use an FAAB system yet. Pick up guys in reverse order of standings both as free agents and waivers. To make matters much worse, the owner who picked up Martinez and Granderson is one of the three best in the league and currently stands 4th which means 8 other teams had a shot at each of them.