Non-Contenders, Competitive Leagues

Gypsy Soul asks about something that has been on both Toz's mind and mine lately: non-contender behavior in carryover leagues.

a friend and myself were berating follow owners in a 5x5, AL only, keeper league for failing to pick up via a waiver claim both (Curtis) Granderson and Victor Martinez at $20 each, primarily for the benefits to be hopefully gained next year. I know without knowing the exact inflation for next year for our league makes this a more difficult question, but just wondered your gut feeling about this. I think we can safely assume the hitting inflation in this league will be at least 15-20%.

It's impossible to offer an entirely accurate analysis without knowing what the maximum number of freezes is and how good or bad all of the non-contenders' freeze lists are.

Entering the week, Granderson was on pace to earn $15 and V-Mart $17. There are certainly other factors than this year's earnings to consider, but neither one of them is a slam dunk as a keep based on this year's performance. If Gypsy's league only allows, say, 8-10 keeps, it's possible that a non-contender may have looked at Granderson and V-Mart's numbers and decided to pass.

Generally speaking, though, on the rare occasions I've been out of the running in keeper leagues, I like to be as aggressive as possible. In this case, I would have claimed Granderson and/or V-Mart because:

• It is hard to gauge what someone's freeze price is going to be at the end of August, and it's not like Granderson/V-Mart's prices are that out of line with the market.
• You never know what someone else might think of their value come next March.
• Unless there is some kind of financial penalty for claiming them, what do I have to lose, particularly if I'm sucking wind with some $10 free agent who won't be a keeper next year or in a million years?

My advice to teams at the bottom is simple. Unless a player is in his option year, acquire, acquire, acquire. Don't muck up the pennant race by spending the $80 of your FAAB on Manny Ramirez just because it is burning a hole in your pocket, but do try to grab freezes via FAAB or waivers. Your goal is to win next year. A $20 Granderson might not work out next March, but what do you have to lose by taking him for a test drive in the last month of 2010?