It's June 1: Are You In or Are You Out?

For those of us in keeper leagues, this is the time of year where you have to decide to go all in or quietly withdraw, lick your wounds and wait for next year. It's dump season, in other words, and if you haven't already either made a trade to go for it this year or wait until next year, now is the time to decide.

I haven't written about dumping in a while, and thought it would be worth revisiting given the lack of good information out there in the fantasy baseball press. Before I dove in, though, I thought I'd review some very basic don'ts that surround dumping.

1) Don't stay in the race just because you dumped last year.
Although it hasn't happened to me since the 1990s, I know it's disappointing to unload two years in a row. The temptation is to go for it just because you didn't last year and it's more fun to try to finish in the money than it is to give up again.

Don't. Fourth place shouldn't be your goal and - if it is your goal - chances are that's the best you're going to do. If you're not going to do any better than finish middle of the pack, then maybe you should consider bailing.

Speaking of goals...

2) Know your upside.
How well can your team do if you're able to make all of the trades you want to make? Do you have a 50% chance of winning? A 30% chance? A 10% chance? How strong or weak your chances are should dictate how aggressive or conservative you should be with your trading.

3) Know your categories
A common mistake I see even experienced owners make is trying to chase all eight or 10 categories in a situation where they're actually hurting their teams. There's nothing wrong with competing across the board if you can, but overpaying in a dump deal just so you can net a few points in saves is a losing game.

4) Know your market
As I always say in this space, you know your leagues better than I do. What kind of market is there for dump trades in your league? Are they typically 2-for-1 deals, or is 1.5-for-1 more of the norm? Do closers go for full market value, or can you buy one now for 50 cents on the dollar?

If you've been in a league for 2-3 years, by now you should have a pretty good feel for how these kinds of trades shake out. You should also be able to use these market factors to your advantage. Does speed go cheap in trade in your league? Or do saves? How much are rookies valued? A little? A lot?

Knowing all of this should not only impact your dump trades, but your strategy when you sit down at the auction table in early April. If a couple of owners in your league overvalue raw rookies, then you'd better find a place at the table for Mike Trout...he could net you a Major Leaguer in mid-July. If saves always go for too much in trade, buy a closer or two at auction. Dump or no, you can always trade for one later.

I'll keep looking at this the rest of the week.