Auctioning Late and Tweaking Prices

IMHO commented on the price fluctuations on a few fast starters in my non-expert American League.

What a difference a week makes. Vernon Wells for $30 and Delmon Young for $10.

Toz is posting prices from the N.L. start-up we did this past weekend. More than one owner I talked to in that league was not used to auctioning after the season starts. These owners weren't certain how early season stats would change prices - or if they would have any impact at all.

In the case of Wells and Young (who went for $24, not $10 in my A.L.), their prices obviously spiked based on early performances. I would guess that Wells would have gone for $20-22 based on what he did last year. In a carryover league, Young's price should have been higher than in a one-and-done league, but $24 is still high based on what he's done the last few years.

I'm always making adjustments to my bids based on events, but advise conservatism when it comes to this practice. I had moved Wells and Young up a couple of ticks prior to my auction but didn't push them up more than that and figured I wouldn't get either one as a result. Not surprisingly, I wasn't in on either player.

Unless an injury is involved, I strongly advise not getting too excited about early season stats. I know I'm not the first person to say this, but if a player hit 4 HR in August it probably wouldn't generate the same level of excitement about how much potential he has than those same HR do in the first week of August.

If you do want to adjust your prices based on one week of stats, use the following simple calculation. Take the player's numbers from last year, add what he's done so far to his numbers and see how much that changes his earnings. In Wells' case, adding a 4 HR, 7 RBI, 7 run, 7 for 14 week to his line from 2009 would bump him up from a $17 player to a $19 player.

This doesn't mean that Wells can't improve on what he did in 2009. However, it's unlikely that a four game sample size told us much of anything. If you believed Wells is going to be better in 2010 than he was in 2009, you should have already made that adjustment to your bids before the season started.