Tout Wars will be live blogged and there should be a spreadsheet updating the rosters as they come through. Here is the link to the Tout Wars web site.
Wish me luck. I've got no strategy going in, just my usual valuation principles that I hope will guide me to a strong auction as they almost always do.
3 comments:
Beat 'em on starting pitching Mike. They always undervalue starters in 5x5. Don't know why. Maybe because it's not sexy to draft second and third tier starters who won't have "breakthrough" seasons. Maybe it's because these guys are stuck in their rut and just feed at the same trough. But, that's always a weak spot in these "expert" leagues. You can kill them by getting $15-25 pitchers for $7-18.
Trust your prices.
Some exhibits from the AL Tout Wars yesterday. My league would laugh at most of these prices and I was way off. These guys are generally half of what they'd go for in "non-expert" AL only 5x5 leagues.
Rich Harden $8
Scott Kazmir $9
John Danks $12
Ben Sheets $6
Jeremy Guthrie $2
Joel Pineiro $6
Carl Pavano $2
Ryan Rowland-Smith $4
Kevin Slowey $9
Justin Masterson $3
Andy Pettitte $7
These guys are almost pure upside with all of the downside risk already priced in. I'd have taken 9 starters and won Wins and Ks and still performed well in ERA/Ratio, but still only paid well below 1/3 of my team salary on pitching had I been in AL Tout. I'm sure that opportunity will be available in NL as well. It's a soft spot for these "experts."
While I agree that several of those pitchers are a couple of dollars under my bid prices, I don't think any of those prices are shocking. Harden and Sheets are injury-prone. Guthrie was outright terrible last year. Masterson and Rowland-Smith are going to need to prove themselves. No one believes in Pineiro, which I personally think is a mistake. Moreover, none of these guys are pure strikeout guys, which lowers their overall 5x5 value.
The issue is interesting, however, because it does raise the issue of whether to ignore the top tier starters and spend money on offense. I think that these leagues do that as a general proposition, and accept the fact that there will be pitching bargains at the end. An interesting dynamic to keep an eye on as the auction progresses.
Of course, I can only watch it progress if I get the heck out of work and get home.
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