Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Good Pricing Systems (or a lack thereof)

Gypsy Soul has the same problem that I often have: he doesn't have a good pricing system to compare Alex Patton's prices to:
I was comparing the prices in Rotowire for 5x5 AL or NL and found their prices consistently and significantly higher than Peter's prices in the Guide for both SPs and hitters. I cannot see people in my league paying those prices when you add in inflation. So, since I don’t work my own prices other than adjustments of Peter's prices, I was wondering if you have found any other places to get more reasonable prices for a comparison? Shandler? Thank you.
I can't comment specifically on Rotowire's prices because I haven't seen them.

Peter is Peter Kreutzer, a.k.a Rotoman, who I've talked about at length on this blog. I won't duplicate those efforts here.

I haven't looked at Ron Shandler's prices in years, so while I could comment on what he was doing right and wrong back in the late 1990s, I can't comment now.

I would say that magazine prices are very early - and rough - guidelines for how to value a player. I wouldn't expect the prices to add up to league budgets, though I would want them to be fairly realistic.

By now, though, prices should be close or fairly close to $3,120 (for 12-team A.L.-only leagues) or $3,380 (for 13-team N.L.-only leagues).

That's probably the most important thing in any pricing system. Without looking at the Rotowire numbers, I'd say add them up and see if they add up to a league budget. If they don't, then they're too high. If they do (or come very close to doing so), then what you might not like are individual prices.

In that case, adjust.

If closers seem too expensive, move their prices down. Just make sure to add some money in elsewhere. If the prices on the top hitters seem too high, adjust...but make sure to add money in the middle.

A more useful method than finding prices you like is taking other projections, plugging in the Patton $ values, and seeing how they compare to the Patton projections from a valuation standpoint. If you see projections that are higher than Patton's in two or more instances, then you might want to push your price up if you like the player and think Patton is all wet. The same holds true in the opposite direction.

The best advice I can give about pricing is that it should feel right when you walk into your auction. If you think a price is too high - or too low - chances are for you that it most definitely is, and you should feel free to make adjustments.

1 comment:

Gypsy Soul said...

Thanks, Mike. BTW, good article by you in the Guide.

I am not sure I understand what you mean when you say-A more useful method than finding prices you like is taking other projections, plugging in the Patton $ values, and seeing how they compare to the Patton projections from a valuation standpoint. If you see projections that are higher than Patton's in two or more instances, then you might want to push your price up if you like the player and think Patton is all wet.

Do you mean compare Patton's 2010 projections of the stats of a player with stats by other prognosticators? For example, compare with CHONE's stats? Then price up or down based on the differences in the stats? If I am not getting it an example might help. Thanks a lot.