I was going to put this together as one big piece but it turned out to be way too long. I'll finish this up tomorrow.
THE SPEED DEMON ELITES
Jacoby Ellsbury $41, Carl Crawford $37.
With the influx of speed into the American League last year, I'm a slightly surprised that Crawford and especially Ellsbury went for this much money. The price for Ellsbury is probably assuming an Age 26 power spike, though he has enough of a ground ball hitter profile that I wouldn't bet on it. A batting average jump, on the other hand, wouldn't surprise me; for a fast hitter, his BABIP's are relatively low. Crawford is the guy who could outearn this price based on his history. The trade risk and the fact that he's been banged up each of the last two years is what probably keeps him under $40. If you're in a league that lets you keep hitters traded to the N.L., I like Crawford better than Ellsbury.
THE NEAR-ELITES
Ichiro Suzuki $31, Adam Lind $30, Grady Sizemore $30, Nelson Cruz $29, Curtis Granderson $29, B.J. Upton $29, Nick Markakis $28, Shin-Soo Choo $27.
Suzuki fits what I wrote about Derek Jeter earlier in this series. At Age 36, you would expect some kind of decline, but someone is going to pay Ichiro into the $30s until that decline actually happens. It's theoretically risky, but great players like Suzuki are outliers who often defy the odds. Lind emerged last year as a serious power force, though that was fueled by a 19.8% HR/FB rate that may or may not be sustainable given his relatively low G/F rate. Even if he repeats 2009, he earned $27 last year and that seems like more of a ceiling than a building block. Sizemore's big question is obviously health. He was the most valuable player in the American League in 2008, so he could be a bargain here but could also be a bust if he doesn't come back at full speed. Cruz certainly ran with his long overdue chance at the majors. He hit a big chunk of his HR in the first half, so it's worth wondering if pitchers caught up with him to a degree. The 25/20 potential still makes Cruz worth a mid-20s bid.
A lot of touts are high on Granderson with the move to Yankee Stadium, but he's hit LHP like a pitcher two of the last three years and stopped running entirely in the second half last year. I wouldn't put a comeback season past him, but I wouldn't pay him more than $23-24 to find out if it's going to happen. Speaking of wishcasting, Upton is getting paid once again to be the near-superstar he was in 2007, not for the horrible lost season he had in 2009. He earned $19 last year because of the steals, so I guess that's your floor, but I don't like the idea of chasing a guy this close to $30 who posted 600 OPSs every month Post All-Star. Maybe Upton's going to figure it all out and bounce back, but don't pay him like he automatically will. Markakis had a disappointing Roto year but was fairly consistent in real life. His value mostly dropped because he stopped stealing bases for the most part. At this point, it's possible Cakes won't be the superstar that some thought he would, but if he settles in as a mid-20s player, that's not so bad. Choo seems like the relative bargain here: a player who got the job done all year and isn't being paid on spec like some of these other guys.
THE REST OF THE $20s
Adam Jones $25, Carlos Quentin $25, Bobby Abreu $24, Michael Cuddyer $23, Torii Hunter $23, Jason Kubel $22, Josh Hamilton $20, Denard Span $20.
Jones' price assumes he's going to take the Next Step Forward. He might, though even before he got hurt last year he still didn't crack an 800 OPS and struggled after a white hot April. I might give him a slight raise, but this could be one of those Age 24, pre-peak consolidation seasons. Quentin's terrible BABIP makes some think he could return to the dizzying heights of 2009. Just like with Sizemore, I think more depends on his health than his BABIP. Abreu had a great Roto season last year, but was all over the place, running in the second half with no power and then hitting for power in the second half with less speed. It seems like he could still put up a 20/20 season with a solid batting average, but his age makes me want to temper my bet slightly. Cuddyer put up his best season since 2006 and cracked 30 HR for the first time in his career last year. Maybe he'll start a Raul Ibanez-like late career run, but that's not something I want to be betting on.
Hunter chugs along as a consistent 20/20 performer. I wouldn't expect him to hit .299 again, but even if he's batting average neutral he's still a nice chip in the low $20s. Kubel put up a strong power year even though he couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag against lefties. He belongs in a platoon but Gardenhire will probably send him out there every day again this year. Hamilton's price could make him a big bargain if he's healthy...but that's why he doesn't have a big price. Span vindicated those owners who pushed for him last year in the high teens/low $20s without a breakout season. Talent trumped the numbers he had put up to date; sometimes players continue developing even when they reach the majors. His statistical profile doesn't scream more power, but I wouldn't put it past him.
MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
Julio Borbon $19, Vernon Wells $18, Franklin Gutierrez $17, Nolan Reimold $16, Nick Swisher $16, Rajai Davis $15, Juan Pierre $15, Juan Rivera $15.
Borbon's either going to be a bust or a bargain at this price; there isn't much middle ground. Either he figures out lefties enough to play every day, hit .280-.290 and steal 50 bases or he flops against them and winds up in a platoon or back in the minors. I believe in Borbon, but this price does give pause. Wells stayed on the field last year but looked pretty putrid with the bat. The hopes are that wrist surgery will bring Wells' power back in '10. The price here assumes he'll run as aggressively as he did last year. Gutierrez is a poor-man's Choo, and this year he might wind up hitting the 20/20 plateau. He's an underrated Roto player and I like him at this price. Reimold could hit 25-30 HR if he gets to play a full season this year, though I wonder if the pitchers aren't going to make another round of adjustments after his hot second half last year. He's OK at this price.
Swisher is a maddening hitter who goes through streaks where he looks like Albert Pujols and then other streaks where he's Brad Ausmus. If you're in an OBP league, this price is an absolute steal; in BA leagues it's OK. He hit 21 of his 29 HR away from Yankee Stadium last year. Davis was arguably the best Roto player in baseball last August and played his way into the A's line-up. He might regress somewhat in batting average, but even if he does, he's going to play unless his OBP falls below .300. The 70-80 steals Ricky Henderson mentioned could be a stretch, but 50 aren't. Pierre returns to a starting role after being the most expensive fourth OF in baseball for the Dodgers. He's a one-trick pony, but even in 5x5 earned $20 over 380 AB. This price could be a big bargain even if he stays batting average neutral. Rivera also looks underrated to me at this price. The league definitely caught up to Rivera Post All-Star, but he should still be a decent power source even if his OPS makes him just an OK option in reality.
No comments:
Post a Comment