Getting Innings from Cheap Pitchers

After reading one of my reader's proposals for buying a cheap pitching staff, Eugene postulated that you would have to buy a lot of starting pitching to even attempt this.

If you have any intention of making 1200 IP, you need to have at least 5 starting pitchers, maybe 6 if they're all $1 b/c they will likely be a lot of #5 starters.

Is this true? I thought I'd take a look at last year's $0 or $1 starters (average salary) from each league and see.

2009 Top $0-1 A.L. SP by IP

#	Player	W	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	$
1	Carl Pavano	14	199 1/3	147	5.10	1.375	$12
2	Kevin Millwood	13	198 2/3	123	3.67	1.339	$18
3	Jeff Niemann	13	180 2/3	125	3.94	1.351	$16
4	Jarrod Washburn	9	176	100	3.78	1.188	$17
5	Brian Bannister	7	154	98	4.73	1.370	$8
6	Luke Hochevar	7	143	106	6.55	1.490	-$1
	Totals	63	1051 2/3	699	4,57	1.366	$70

These aren't the six best $0 or $1 starting pitchers in the American League last year, just the six who accumulated the most IP.

Assuming a nine-man pitching staff, and assuming that you bought six middle relievers who averaged 60 innings apiece, you could probably get away with a four-man rotation if you picked up four of the starters above.

However, these pitchers are the best case scenarios in terms of $1 pitchers and innings pitched. If you buy four starters and one of them hits the D.L. or flames out after 30-40 IP, you're going to have to scramble. Eugene is right that you're probably better off with five starters.

You should keep in mind that if you're going with a $9 (or very cheap pitching strategy) that your goal isn't going to buy the five or six best $1 starters in the league. You ideally want to get one breakout, one league average pitcher, and two filler pitchers who won't kill you. If you've done this, you've done quite well for yourself.

Your goal should be to build a middle-of-the-pack staff through trades and free agent pick-ups. If your league has a farm system or reserve list, take plenty of potential starting pitchers; don't be afraid to dip into Double-A. You only need to hit a couple of lottery tickets to get to where you're going.

2009 Top $0-1 N.L. SP by IP

#	Player	W	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	$
1	Zach Duke	11	213	106	4.06	1.315	$11
2	Doug Davis	9	203 1/3	146	4.12	1.505	$7
3	Kevin Correia	12	198	142	3.91	1.303	$15
4	Braden Looper	14	194 2/3	100	5.22	1.490	$2
5	Barry Zito	10	192	154	4.03	1.354	$12
6	Jorge de la Rosa	16	185	193	4.38	1.378	$15
	Totals	72	1186	841	4.28	1.390	$62

It seems that there are more innings to be had in the National League, but the same general theories apply. Kudos to you if your dollar bought you Zito or Correia last year, but that same dollar just as easily could have landed you Jon Niese or Jo-Jo Reyes.

Another point to remember is that you're not trying to buy all of the innings you need at your auction. The average National League Roto team bought 993.56 innings at auction, while the average American League team bought 920.75. Another 780 innings will show up in the N.L. per team while another 760 will come out in the A.L. While all of these innings certainly won't be desirable, some of them ultimately will be. You can buy six starting pitchers with this strategy if you like, but be aware that if two or three of your starters stink up the joint in April, that it's likely you'll be dumping come May.