I like the way Mike broke down his auction, so I am going to follow suit. I appreciate Mike's attempt to live blog the auction, but the weather (and, in turn, his internet) turned bad quickly. We moved even faster than the NL, so Mike's attempts would have been in vain.
Unlike Mike, I went into the AL with a strategy. Generally speaking, I am a strategy guy. I am not sure if it is a lack of auction confidence, a lack of confidence in bid prices, or what, but I always seem more comfortable working from a strategy.
This year, I decided I wanted to try a Sweeney in the A.L. For those of you not familiar with the strategy (named after an old American Dreams League owner), it essentially requires dumping HR and RBI and maxing out your other categories. This is a very difficult strategy in a high innings/high AB requirement league, and is also very difficult in 5x5. The long and the short is that it is a curveball strategy that, if it works, guarantees (in theory anyway) a minimum number of points (the dream in 5x5 is a minimum of 98 by winning each other category). Since runs are tied to power as much as speed, and since pitching is unpredictable, the dream scenario is sometimes out of reach.
Why this strategy in this league? Simple - try something different. Mike fell into a "modified" Sweeney last year in the AL. I figured that I could get the pitchers cheaply enough that I could secure 2 of the top 10, 2 closers under $40, and still have at least $160-$170 to spend on an offense.
One note on bids...I did not tweak them on my sheet for this strategy. We can all debate later on whether you should or should not, but I am comfortable enough in my auction to adjust mentally. It also allows me to see what the room is doing on other players, and allows for an adjustment to the strategy if need be.
Catchers: Kelly Shoppach ($4/$1), Dioner Navarro ($4/$1). I anticipated that I would be blowing off catchers (this is pretty standard in Sweeney plans, since most catchers don't run), so I did not involve myself in the catching bids. It also seemed that many of the catchers I would have wanted for upside went overpriced. In the endgame, however, I had plenty of money left over, so I figured I would grab the best I could. I know the averages look bad from last year, but I expect rebounds from both players. There is just enough power there that with some contributions from other players, I could finish a little higher than last in the power categories. Part of the Sweeney is to get regulars in order to generate the counting stats (runs in particular for this strategy). I did that, and with a little luck, this will work out okay.
Corners: Casey Kotchman ($9/$9), Lyle Overbay ($8/$7), Edwin Encarnacion ($9/9). As you look at these final prices and bids, remember how far down I picked these guys: 160, 169 and 198. Again, it was time to fill in an offense, and I got three players who will see regular ABs, if they aren't "sexy." Since most corners don't run much (the ones who do run a little have a lot of power attached to them and, frankly, don't fit into the budget I had in mind). Unfortunately, quite a few of the first basement went at par, and I wish I had spent an extra dollar or two on one of them. On the flip side, for the number of positions I needed to fill in the corner and the middle, I did well to get these players with some money still floating around out there.
Middle: Alberto Callaspo ($6/$8), Cliff Pennington ($5/$8), Chris Getz ($5/$9). I am very, very happy to have these three guys up the middle. With Callaspo and Getz, I got all of the ABs there are to get at 2B, and if Callaspo moves to short ( and I think he might), I am really in business. Getz will run every chance he gets. Callaspo's average is not an issue - the real question is whether the blooming power will stay. I believe it will. Pennington is an under the radar guy who put up some very projectable numbers last year...if you take those numbers out to a full season, they are very respectable (10-12HR, 20 or so SB). These guys fit nicely into the strategy, and I didn't pay over my sheet for any of them.
Outfield: Carl Crawford ($37/$38), Jermaine Dye ($6/$12), Raj Davis ($15/$19), Brett Gardner ($10/$15), David Murphy ($5/$9). In every auction, there are a number of guys and you smack yourself in the head and say "Wow, why did I let him go?" There were certainly a few of those, but I got a couple of the guys I wanted. My target was Ellsbury. At $41, I had to let him go. I knew that there were plenty of other speed guys out there, and my patience was rewarded. I love Crawford at this price; the risk, of course, is that he is in the NL in July, in which case I am out of luck. The other speed guys went for prices at or over my bid prices; Figgins is one guy I wish I pushed another $1 or $2, but who knew I would have $14 left at the end. Davis and Gardner are self-explanatory. How about Dye and Murphy? Well, Dye came up at an awkward time, and I fully expect him to be a platoon DH/1B at worst. In 300 AB, I couldn't let Dye go for $5. I fully expected someone to say $7; imagine my surprise! Murphy was, in my opinion, the best player on the board. Again, 350 AB should bring a tidy profit (particularly in Texas).
DH: Travis Hafner ($3). I don't have much to say here. I didn't really want him, I really don't like him. Mike said you need upside to clog up the DH slot with him. At $3? Upside.
I'll tell you about pitchers later this weekend.
1 comment:
The offense doesn't really look like a Sweeney offense. There are plenty of guys who have decent power and lower averages. But, as I said in a previous comment, the steals are extremely good. You also have a lot of silent production - everyday players who will get solid RBI and Runs.
When I think of Sweeneying in the AL I always figure getting Ichiro and Crawford. Although Ichiro's steals were down last year, he still is good for 25+ and his BAvg is always dominant (due to high ABs). Jeter is another consideration as well. Michael Young would be more of a pure BAvg play. Crawford does more in BAvg than Ellsbury, so he's a better player for Sweeney if you're going to have depth in SB like yours.
I've never had the guts to do it, just rambling about my ideas in light of your courage.
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