...in our 12 team NL only 5x5, three owners took the strategy of overpaying for closers with Ks and saves with a focus on overpaying for Ks in middle relief. The result was all three placing 2, 3, and 4 in the standings.Using this approach in the CBS Sports expert league, I picked up Andrew Bailey, Jason Frasor and CJ Wilson. I wasn't focused on their potential for saves at the time of the pick-ups but, rather, their ability to strike hitters out. I assumed - correctly - that relievers with high whiff potential could also have other positive statistical outcomes tied in to their final stat line.
One problem I've always had with this approach, though, is the idea that you can generally find quality middle relievers lurking in the free agent pool at any given point in the season.
(For the purposes of this exercise, I'm looking at pitchers who started the year as middle relievers.)
Top 10 Middle Reliever Strikeouts: N.L. 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Rafael Soriano | $18 | $4 | +15 | $7 | $7 | $3 |
| 2 | Luke Gregorson | $9 | |||||
| 3 | Carlos Villanueva | $2 | $4 | -1 | $9 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | Ryan Madson | $12 | $2 | +10 | $3 | $6 | $10 |
| 5 | Edward Mujica | $7 | -$1 | ||||
| 6 | Bobby Parnell | -$1 | $0 | ||||
| 7 | Chan Ho Park | $3 | $2 | $7 | |||
| 8 | Kris Medlen | $4 | |||||
| 9 | Kevin Gregg | $11 | $5 | +6 | $10 | $2 | $17 |
| 10 | Jeff Fulchino | $10 | -$3 | ||||
| Average | $8 | $2 | +3 | $3 | $2 | $4 |
More than half of these guys went undrafted in the three expert leagues, and probably went for a nominal FAAB bid when they were available. With the possible exception of Villanueva, the other relievers on this list who were paid were paid with the expectation that they might eventually close (some sooner than others).
The thing that surprises me most about this chart is that - even with the strikeouts factored in - some of these pitchers weren't very good last year. Of the pitchers who didn't manage to get save opportunities at some point during the season, only Fulchino managed to make it into double digits in earnings...and he earned less than half his money in strikeouts. Owners who held onto Parnell because of his whiffs lost ground and would have been better off with someone else.
Top 10 Middle Reliever Strikeouts: A.L. 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Justin Masterson | $7 | $4 | +3 | $6 | $2 | $9 |
| 2 | Mike Wuertz | $19 | $2 | $2 | |||
| 3 | Phil Hughes | $17 | $4 | +13 | R2 | $1 | -$3 |
| 4 | Andrew Bailey | $27 | |||||
| 5 | Matt Thornton | $16 | $2 | +13 | $5 | $1 | $13 |
| 6 | Robinson Tejeda | $10 | R3 | $5 | |||
| 7 | C.J. Wilson | $15 | $1 | +14 | $4 | $1 | $6 |
| 8 | David Aardsma | $22 | $1 | +21 | -$0 | ||
| 9 | J.P. Howell | $17 | $2 | +15 | $3 | $2 | $17 |
| 10 | Brandon League | $7 | $1 | $1 | $4 | ||
| Average | $16 | $1 | +8 | $2 | $1 | $5 |
League differences, with a capital D.
The A.L. had fewer free agents, and fewer pitchers who truly could have been viewed as closers-in-waiting at the start of the season...particularly judging by their prices. Howell seemingly had the entire Rays bullpen ahead of him in April. While Aardsma seemed like the back up to Morrow, a loaded bullpen combined with Aardsma's dubious track record certainly didn't make him look like the favorite.
More importantly, trolling for middle relief strikeouts in the A.L. did lead to grabbing earnings across the board. If you had ignored Wuertz's 2008 and looked back at his K/IP ratios in 2006-2007, you would have had a find. Thornton also fit the profile of a pitcher whose K/IP were more promising prior to 2008 than his earnings.
I'm not clear as to why the A.L. list is a far more success-oriented sort. But I would definitely watch for these types of pitchers this spring as well. In both leagues, they're certainly cheap enough to snag in your endgame, and if you lose out on your $1-2 investment, that's better than chasing a mediocrity in an MLB rotation who might very well be out of a job come June.
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